Novartis (VTX:NOVN) stock performs better than its underlying earnings growth over last three years

By buying an index fund, investors can approximate the average market return. But if you buy good businesses at attractive prices, your portfolio returns could exceed the average market return. For example, the Novartis AG (VTX:NOVN) share price is up 12% in the last three years, clearly besting the market decline of around 10% (not including dividends). On the other hand, the returns haven't been quite so good recently, with shareholders up just 18%, including dividends.

The past week has proven to be lucrative for Novartis investors, so let's see if fundamentals drove the company's three-year performance.

View our latest analysis for Novartis

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During three years of share price growth, Novartis achieved compound earnings per share growth of 7.8% per year. The average annual share price increase of 4% is actually lower than the EPS growth. So one could reasonably conclude that the market has cooled on the stock.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

We know that Novartis has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? If you're interested, you could check this free report showing consensus revenue forecasts.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Novartis, it has a TSR of 33% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Novartis shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 18% over the last year. That's including the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 7% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Novartis you should know about.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Swiss exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.