Stock Analysis

Even after rising 19% this past week, Idorsia (VTX:IDIA) shareholders are still down 87% over the past three years

SWX:IDIA
Source: Shutterstock

Idorsia Ltd (VTX:IDIA) shareholders will doubtless be very grateful to see the share price up 57% in the last quarter. But the last three years have seen a terrible decline. The share price has sunk like a leaky ship, down 87% in that time. So it sure is nice to see a bit of an improvement. But the more important question is whether the underlying business can justify a higher price still. We really hope anyone holding through that price crash has a diversified portfolio. Even when you lose money, you don't have to lose the lesson.

The recent uptick of 19% could be a positive sign of things to come, so let's take a look at historical fundamentals.

See our latest analysis for Idorsia

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During five years of share price growth, Idorsia moved from a loss to profitability. That would generally be considered a positive, so we are surprised to see the share price is down. So it's worth looking at other metrics to try to understand the share price move.

Revenue is actually up 56% over the three years, so the share price drop doesn't seem to hinge on revenue, either. This analysis is just perfunctory, but it might be worth researching Idorsia more closely, as sometimes stocks fall unfairly. This could present an opportunity.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
SWX:IDIA Earnings and Revenue Growth July 29th 2024

It is of course excellent to see how Idorsia has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. If you are thinking of buying or selling Idorsia stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 8.1% in the last year, Idorsia shareholders lost 59%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 13% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. To that end, you should learn about the 5 warning signs we've spotted with Idorsia (including 4 which are a bit concerning) .

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Swiss exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.