Those who invested in Clariant (VTX:CLN) five years ago are up 45%

By
Simply Wall St
Published
January 06, 2022
SWX:CLN
Source: Shutterstock

If you buy and hold a stock for many years, you'd hope to be making a profit. Furthermore, you'd generally like to see the share price rise faster than the market. But Clariant AG (VTX:CLN) has fallen short of that second goal, with a share price rise of 11% over five years, which is below the market return. Meanwhile, the last twelve months saw the share price rise 4.0%.

With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.

Check out our latest analysis for Clariant

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During five years of share price growth, Clariant actually saw its EPS drop 13% per year.

The strong decline in earnings per share suggests the market isn't using EPS to judge the company. The falling EPS doesn't correlate with the climbing share price, so it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

We doubt the modest 0.8% dividend yield is attracting many buyers to the stock. The revenue reduction of 10% per year is not a positive. It certainly surprises us that the share price is up, but perhaps a closer examination of the data will yield answers.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
SWX:CLN Earnings and Revenue Growth January 6th 2022

Clariant is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Clariant will earn in the future (free analyst consensus estimates)

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Clariant the TSR over the last 5 years was 45%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Clariant shareholders gained a total return of 8.0% during the year. But that return falls short of the market. On the bright side, that's still a gain, and it's actually better than the average return of 8% over half a decade This could indicate that the company is winning over new investors, as it pursues its strategy. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Clariant better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Clariant (at least 1 which shouldn't be ignored) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CH exchanges.

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