Earnings Miss: Aluflexpack AG Missed EPS By 22% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Investors in Aluflexpack AG (VTX:AFP) had a good week, as its shares rose 6.8% to close at CHF16.45 following the release of its yearly results. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of €267m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 22% to hit €0.80 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Aluflexpack after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Aluflexpack

Following the latest results, Aluflexpack's three analysts are now forecasting revenues of €305.0m in 2022. This would be a meaningful 14% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plunge 45% to €0.45 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €308.2m and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.63 in 2022. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a large cut to EPS estimates.

The average price target fell 23% to CHF23.86, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Aluflexpack, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CHF24.71 and the most bearish at CHF23.00 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Aluflexpack is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The period to the end of 2022 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 14% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 12% annual growth over the past three years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 6.2% annually. So it's pretty clear that Aluflexpack is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Aluflexpack. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - and our data suggests that revenues are expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Aluflexpack's future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Aluflexpack. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Aluflexpack going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Aluflexpack (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.