Aluflexpack (SWX:AFP) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of AFP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

AFP (CHF17.94) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (CHF55.46)

AFP fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	3/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	0/6

AFP Stock Overview

Aluflexpack AG provides flexible packaging products and solutions.

Rewards

Trading at 67.7% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 19.18% per year

Earnings grew by 59.5% over the past year

Risk Analysis

High level of non-cash earnings

Aluflexpack Competitors

Vetropack Holding

SWX:VETN

CHF776.1m

Gurit Holding

SWX:GURN

CHF506.6m

Swiss Steel Holding

SWX:STLN

CHF847.3m

Mold-Tek Packaging

BSE:533080

₹30.2b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Aluflexpack
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	CHF17.94
52 Week High	CHF38.30
52 Week Low	CHF13.70
Beta	0.89
1 Month Change	9.93%
3 Month Change	20.40%
1 Year Change	-48.15%
3 Year Change	-10.30%
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	-20.27%

Recent News & Updates

Mar 21

Earnings Miss: Aluflexpack AG Missed EPS By 22% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Investors in Aluflexpack AG ( VTX:AFP ) had a good week, as its shares rose 6.8% to close at CHF16.45 following the...

Dec 14

Is There Now An Opportunity In Aluflexpack AG (VTX:AFP)?

Aluflexpack AG ( VTX:AFP ), is not the largest company out there, but it received a lot of attention from a substantial...

Shareholder Returns

	AFP	CH Packaging	CH Market
7D	6.5%	1.0%	-0.2%
1Y	-48.2%	-19.5%	-12.0%

Return vs Industry: AFP underperformed the Swiss Packaging industry which returned -19.8% over the past year.

Return vs Market: AFP underperformed the Swiss Market which returned -11.9% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is AFP's price volatile compared to industry and market?
AFP volatility
AFP Average Weekly Movement	4.1%
Packaging Industry Average Movement	4.8%
Market Average Movement	4.5%
10% most volatile stocks in CH Market	8.1%
10% least volatile stocks in CH Market	2.4%

Stable Share Price: AFP is not significantly more volatile than the rest of Swiss stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.

Volatility Over Time: AFP's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1987	1,339	Johannes Steurer	https://www.aluflexpack.com

Aluflexpack AG provides flexible packaging products and solutions. It offers aluminum containers; films and foils; lacquer foils; lids; pouches; and printed aluminum foils. The company offers its products for coffee and tea, confectionary, dairy, other food, non-food, pet food, and pharmaceuticals industries.

Aluflexpack Fundamentals Summary

How do Aluflexpack's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
AFP fundamental statistics
Market Cap	€319.61m
Earnings (TTM)	€14.00m
Revenue (TTM)	€267.20m

22.8x

P/E Ratio

1.2x

P/S Ratio

Is AFP overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
AFP income statement (TTM)
Revenue	€267.20m
Cost of Revenue	€175.68m
Gross Profit	€91.52m
Other Expenses	€77.52m
Earnings	€14.00m

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 31, 2021

Next Earnings Date

Aug 23, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.81
Gross Margin	34.25%
Net Profit Margin	5.24%
Debt/Equity Ratio	9.7%

How did AFP perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is AFP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AFP?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for AFP. This is calculated by dividing AFP's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is AFP's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	€319.61m

AFP key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	9.2x
PEG Ratio	1.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AFP's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

AFP PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for AFP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	29.1x
VETN Vetropack Holding	12.2x	1.5%	CHF776.1m
GURN Gurit Holding	44.6x	32.6%	CHF506.6m
STLN Swiss Steel Holding	12.1x	n/a	CHF847.3m
533080 Mold-Tek Packaging	47.6x	26.5%	₹30.2b
AFP Aluflexpack	22.8x	19.2%	CHF310.4m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AFP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.8x) compared to the peer average (29.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AFP's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Packaging Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AFP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.8x) compared to the European Packaging industry average (16.5x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AFP's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AFP PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	22.8x
Fair PE Ratio	22.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AFP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.1x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AFP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AFP (CHF17.94) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CHF55.46)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AFP is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.

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Future Growth

How is Aluflexpack forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

Future Growth Score

3/6

Future Growth Score 3/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

19.2%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: AFP's forecast earnings growth (19.2% per year) is above the savings rate (-0.2%).

Earnings vs Market: AFP's earnings (19.2% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Swiss market (8.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: AFP's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: AFP's revenue (7.6% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Swiss market (4.3% per year).

High Growth Revenue: AFP's revenue (7.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: AFP's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (11.3%).

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Past Performance

How has Aluflexpack performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

59.5%

Last years earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: AFP has a high level of non-cash earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: AFP's current net profit margins (5.2%) are higher than last year (3.7%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: Insufficient data to determine if AFP's year-on-year earnings growth rate was positive over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: Insufficient data to compare AFP's past year earnings growth to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: AFP earnings growth over the past year (59.5%) exceeded the Packaging industry 10.4%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: AFP's Return on Equity (7.8%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is Aluflexpack's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: AFP's short term assets (€121.9M) exceed its short term liabilities (€74.4M).

Long Term Liabilities: AFP's short term assets (€121.9M) exceed its long term liabilities (€45.6M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: AFP's net debt to equity ratio (1.1%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: Insufficient data to determine if AFP's debt to equity ratio has reduced over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: AFP's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (218.2%).

Interest Coverage: AFP's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (10.5x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Aluflexpack current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate AFP's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate AFP's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if AFP's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if AFP's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as AFP has not reported any payouts.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.2yrs

Average board tenure

CEO

Johannes Steurer (39 yo)

9.75yrs

Tenure

Mr. Johannes Steurer, CFA serves as Chief Executive Officer and President of Management Board at Aluflexpack AG since Januray 01, 2022. He serves as Member of Management Board at Aluflexpack AG since Novem...

Board Members

Experienced Board: AFP's board of directors are considered experienced (3.2 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/11 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/11 00:00
Earnings	2021/12/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31