Earnings Miss: Ypsomed Holding AG Missed EPS By 18% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Investors in Ypsomed Holding AG (VTX:YPSN) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.0% to close at CHF380 following the release of its yearly results. It was not a great result overall. Although revenues beat expectations, hitting CHF749m, statutory earnings missed analyst forecasts by 18%, coming in at just CHF6.41 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Ypsomed Holding's four analysts is for revenues of CHF783.3m in 2026. This would reflect an okay 4.6% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 101% to CHF12.86. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CHF813.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of CHF12.24 in 2026. If anything, the analysts look to have become slightly more optimistic overall; while they decreased their revenue forecasts, EPS predictions increased and ultimately earnings are more important.

Check out our latest analysis for Ypsomed Holding

The consensus has made no major changes to the price target of CHF414, suggesting the forecast improvement in earnings is expected to offset the decline in revenues next year. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Ypsomed Holding at CHF495 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CHF330. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Ypsomed Holding's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 4.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 11% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.6% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Ypsomed Holding is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Ypsomed Holding following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Even so, long term profitability is more important for the value creation process. The consensus price target held steady at CHF414, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Ypsomed Holding going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Ypsomed Holding has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.