What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term? Typically, we'll want to notice a trend of growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and alongside that, an expanding base of capital employed. Ultimately, this demonstrates that it's a business that is reinvesting profits at increasing rates of return. So when we looked at Emmi (VTX:EMMN) and its trend of ROCE, we really liked what we saw.
Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)
For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. The formula for this calculation on Emmi is:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.15 = CHF267m ÷ (CHF2.6b - CHF821m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2022).
Therefore, Emmi has an ROCE of 15%. In absolute terms, that's a pretty normal return, and it's somewhat close to the Food industry average of 13%.
See our latest analysis for Emmi
In the above chart we have measured Emmi's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report for Emmi.
SWOT Analysis for Emmi
- Debt is not viewed as a risk.
- Earnings declined over the past year.
- Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Food market.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.
- Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
- Dividends are not covered by cash flow.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Swiss market.
What The Trend Of ROCE Can Tell Us
Emmi has not disappointed with their ROCE growth. The figures show that over the last five years, ROCE has grown 55% whilst employing roughly the same amount of capital. So it's likely that the business is now reaping the full benefits of its past investments, since the capital employed hasn't changed considerably. On that front, things are looking good so it's worth exploring what management has said about growth plans going forward.
For the record though, there was a noticeable increase in the company's current liabilities over the period, so we would attribute some of the ROCE growth to that. The current liabilities has increased to 31% of total assets, so the business is now more funded by the likes of its suppliers or short-term creditors. Keep an eye out for future increases because when the ratio of current liabilities to total assets gets particularly high, this can introduce some new risks for the business.
The Bottom Line
As discussed above, Emmi appears to be getting more proficient at generating returns since capital employed has remained flat but earnings (before interest and tax) are up. Since the stock has only returned 9.0% to shareholders over the last five years, the promising fundamentals may not be recognized yet by investors. So with that in mind, we think the stock deserves further research.
On the other side of ROCE, we have to consider valuation. That's why we have a FREE intrinsic value estimation on our platform that is definitely worth checking out.
While Emmi may not currently earn the highest returns, we've compiled a list of companies that currently earn more than 25% return on equity. Check out this free list here.
Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.
Discover if Emmi might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About SWX:EMMN
Emmi
Develops, produces, and markets a range of dairy and fresh products primarily in Switzerland, the rest of Europe, North and South America, Africa, and Asia/Pacific.
Excellent balance sheet, good value and pays a dividend.