Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that Emmi AG (VTX:EMMN) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
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What Is Emmi's Debt?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Emmi had CHF681.6m in debt in December 2023; about the same as the year before. However, it also had CHF371.3m in cash, and so its net debt is CHF310.2m.
A Look At Emmi's Liabilities
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Emmi had liabilities of CHF616.6m due within 12 months and liabilities of CHF683.0m due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CHF371.3m as well as receivables valued at CHF534.5m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CHF393.8m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
Given Emmi has a market capitalization of CHF4.88b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Emmi has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 0.83. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 10.8 times the size. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. On the other hand, Emmi saw its EBIT drop by 3.3% in the last twelve months. If earnings continue to decline at that rate the company may have increasing difficulty managing its debt load. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Emmi can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. In the last three years, Emmi's free cash flow amounted to 40% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.
Our View
Emmi's interest cover was a real positive on this analysis, as was its net debt to EBITDA. On the other hand, its EBIT growth rate makes us a little less comfortable about its debt. Considering this range of data points, we think Emmi is in a good position to manage its debt levels. Having said that, the load is sufficiently heavy that we would recommend any shareholders keep a close eye on it. Above most other metrics, we think its important to track how fast earnings per share is growing, if at all. If you've also come to that realization, you're in luck, because today you can view this interactive graph of Emmi's earnings per share history for free.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About SWX:EMMN
Emmi
Develops, produces, and markets a range of dairy and fresh products primarily in Switzerland, the rest of Europe, North and South America, Africa, and Asia/Pacific.
Excellent balance sheet, good value and pays a dividend.