Heineken N.V.

BRSE:HEI Stock Report

Market Cap: CHF 42.9b

Heineken Valuation

Is HEI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HEI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HEI (CHF104.75) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CHF323.18)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HEI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HEI?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

HEI key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA11x
PEG Ratio1.7x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HEI's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HEI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average24.7x
LISN Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli
37.4x6.4%CHF 25.8b
BARN Barry Callebaut
26.3x25.0%CHF 7.5b
NESN Nestlé
20.9x6.5%CHF 234.0b
ABEV3 Ambev
14x8.0%R$202.1b
HEI Heineken
43.3x25.5%CHF 45.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HEI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (43.3x) compared to the peer average (24.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HEI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Beverage Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a12.7%
 n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a12.7%
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No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HEI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (43.3x) compared to the European Beverage industry average (19.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HEI's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HEI PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio43.3x
Fair PE Ratio37.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HEI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (43.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (37.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HEI forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCHF 104.75
CHF 91.59
-12.6%
12.6%CHF 121.42CHF 65.45n/a21
Aug ’25CHF 104.75
CHF 92.80
-11.4%
13.3%CHF 128.30CHF 66.09n/a21
Jul ’25CHF 104.75
CHF 96.09
-8.3%
13.6%CHF 129.38CHF 66.64n/a21
Jun ’25CHF 104.75
CHF 98.48
-6.0%
13.5%CHF 132.67CHF 68.34n/a21
May ’25CHF 104.75
CHF 98.48
-6.0%
13.5%CHF 132.67CHF 68.34n/a21
Apr ’25CHF 104.75
CHF 95.87
-8.5%
12.7%CHF 119.66CHF 67.65n/a21
Mar ’25CHF 104.75
CHF 93.92
-10.3%
13.5%CHF 117.19CHF 66.26n/a22
Feb ’25CHF 104.75
CHF 95.45
-8.9%
12.7%CHF 114.81CHF 64.91n/a22
Jan ’25CHF 104.75
CHF 96.35
-8.0%
12.3%CHF 112.68CHF 65.85n/a22
Dec ’24CHF 104.75
CHF 97.25
-7.2%
13.5%CHF 128.19CHF 66.03n/a23
Nov ’24CHF 104.75
CHF 97.25
-7.2%
13.5%CHF 128.19CHF 66.03n/a23
Oct ’24CHF 104.75
CHF 102.44
-2.2%
13.7%CHF 130.65CHF 67.30n/a24
Sep ’24CHF 104.75
CHF 103.50
-1.2%
13.6%CHF 129.54CHF 66.73CHF 104.7525
Aug ’24CHF 104.75
CHF 104.11
-0.6%
14.1%CHF 129.77CHF 66.85CHF 104.7525
Jul ’24CHF 104.75
CHF 107.94
+3.0%
15.8%CHF 141.79CHF 68.00CHF 104.7522
Jun ’24CHF 104.75
CHF 108.57
+3.6%
16.2%CHF 141.16CHF 67.70CHF 104.7522
May ’24CHF 104.75
CHF 107.52
+2.6%
16.5%CHF 142.92CHF 68.54CHF 104.7522
Apr ’24CHF 104.75
CHF 105.27
+0.5%
14.4%CHF 129.00CHF 69.00CHF 104.7521
Mar ’24CHF 99.00
CHF 104.79
+5.8%
14.1%CHF 129.53CHF 69.29CHF 104.7523
Feb ’24CHF 104.75
CHF 102.22
-2.4%
13.4%CHF 126.99CHF 68.99CHF 104.7523
Jan ’24CHF 104.75
CHF 99.47
-5.0%
13.4%CHF 118.91CHF 68.91CHF 104.7523
Dec ’23CHF 104.75
CHF 98.24
-6.2%
12.9%CHF 118.10CHF 68.44CHF 104.7523
Nov ’23CHF 104.75
CHF 100.18
-4.4%
13.0%CHF 119.03CHF 68.98CHF 104.7524
Oct ’23CHF 104.75
CHF 103.05
-1.6%
12.6%CHF 120.64CHF 67.11CHF 104.7525
Sep ’23CHF 104.75
CHF 102.40
-2.2%
12.6%CHF 120.10CHF 66.81CHF 104.7525

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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