Julius Baer (SWX:BAER) Valuation After Compliance Shake-Up and Abu Dhabi Ultra-Wealth Expansion Approval

Julius Bär Gruppe (SWX:BAER) is shaking up its risk and growth playbook, combining a revamped compliance leadership team with regulatory approval to launch a new ultra high net worth focused office in Abu Dhabi.

See our latest analysis for Julius Bär Gruppe.

Those moves land at a time when Julius Bär’s 1 month share price return of 6.16% has started to rebuild momentum, while its 5 year total shareholder return of 43.92% points to a steadily compounding long term story rather than a quick turnaround trade.

If these risk and growth upgrades have you thinking more broadly about where capital might work harder, this could be a good moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

Yet with the shares trading below analysts’ targets and our estimates of intrinsic value, investors now face a key question: Is Julius Bär still undervalued, or is the market already pricing in its next phase of growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 7.9% Undervalued

With Julius Bär Gruppe’s narrative fair value sitting modestly above the last close of CHF57.54, the story hinges on earnings momentum rather than a rerating alone.

Analysts expect earnings to reach CHF 1.2 billion (and earnings per share of CHF 6.35) by about September 2028, up from CHF 865.4 million today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as CHF1.0 billion.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what justifies paying up for a private bank in a crowded wealth market? The narrative leans on upgraded revenue, fatter margins, and a future earnings multiple that quietly bakes in ongoing growth. Want to see exactly how those moving parts stack up and what kind of profit profile they are betting on five years from now?

Result: Fair Value of CHF62.47 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, unresolved credit review findings or failure to deliver CHF130 million in cost savings could quickly erode confidence in that earnings-led upside.

Find out about the key risks to this Julius Bär Gruppe narrative.

Build Your Own Julius Bär Gruppe Narrative

If you see the story differently or simply want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a customised view in just a few minutes using Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Julius Bär Gruppe research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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