Morgan Stanley Valuation

Is MS undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MS (CHF42.2) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CHF46.13)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MS is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MS?

Key metric: As MS is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MS. This is calculated by dividing MS's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MS's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	20.3x
Earnings	US$10.62b
Market Cap	US$215.98b

MS key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	2.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MS's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MS vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	22.1x
SQN Swissquote Group Holding	19.6x	12.7%	CHF 5.0b
UBSG UBS Group	22.3x	25.6%	CHF 90.2b
CFT Compagnie Financière Tradition	12x	n/a	CHF 1.2b
PGHN Partners Group Holding	34.4x	14.2%	CHF 33.0b
MS Morgan Stanley	20.3x	8.1%	CHF 216.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.3x) compared to the peer average (21.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MS's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Capital Markets Industry?

17 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

17 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MS is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.3x) compared to the European Capital Markets industry average (13.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MS's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MS PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	20.3x
Fair PE Ratio	29x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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