Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies OC Oerlikon Corporation AG (VTX:OERL) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for OC Oerlikon
What Is OC Oerlikon's Net Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of June 2023 OC Oerlikon had CHF1.26b of debt, an increase on CHF853.0m, over one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of CHF520.0m, its net debt is less, at about CHF744.0m.
How Strong Is OC Oerlikon's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, OC Oerlikon had liabilities of CHF1.42b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CHF1.92b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CHF520.0m as well as receivables valued at CHF658.0m due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CHF2.15b.
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the CHF1.36b company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. After all, OC Oerlikon would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
OC Oerlikon has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.6, which signals significant debt, but is still pretty reasonable for most types of business. But its EBIT was about 12.0 times its interest expense, implying the company isn't really paying a high cost to maintain that level of debt. Even were the low cost to prove unsustainable, that is a good sign. Shareholders should be aware that OC Oerlikon's EBIT was down 40% last year. If that decline continues then paying off debt will be harder than selling foie gras at a vegan convention. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine OC Oerlikon's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the last three years, OC Oerlikon recorded free cash flow worth a fulsome 82% of its EBIT, which is stronger than we'd usually expect. That puts it in a very strong position to pay down debt.
Our View
On the face of it, OC Oerlikon's level of total liabilities left us tentative about the stock, and its EBIT growth rate was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least it's pretty decent at covering its interest expense with its EBIT; that's encouraging. Overall, we think it's fair to say that OC Oerlikon has enough debt that there are some real risks around the balance sheet. If all goes well, that should boost returns, but on the flip side, the risk of permanent capital loss is elevated by the debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for OC Oerlikon you should be aware of, and 2 of them are significant.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About SWX:OERL
OC Oerlikon
Provides surface engineering, polymer processing, and additive manufacturing services in Switzerland, Americas, the Asia-Pacific, and Europe.
Very undervalued with moderate growth potential.