Stock Analysis
- Switzerland
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- Machinery
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- SWX:GF
Georg Fischer (VTX:GF) shareholders have earned a 9.1% CAGR over the last five years
When we invest, we're generally looking for stocks that outperform the market average. And the truth is, you can make significant gains if you buy good quality businesses at the right price. For example, long term Georg Fischer AG (VTX:GF) shareholders have enjoyed a 39% share price rise over the last half decade, well in excess of the market return of around 5.1% (not including dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 14% in the last year, including dividends.
So let's investigate and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.
View our latest analysis for Georg Fischer
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
Georg Fischer's earnings per share are down 2.1% per year, despite strong share price performance over five years.
So it's hard to argue that the earnings per share are the best metric to judge the company, as it may not be optimized for profits at this point. Therefore, it's worth taking a look at other metrics to try to understand the share price movements.
The modest 1.9% dividend yield is unlikely to be propping up the share price. In contrast revenue growth of 3.6% per year is probably viewed as evidence that Georg Fischer is growing, a real positive. In that case, the company may be sacrificing current earnings per share to drive growth.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
Take a more thorough look at Georg Fischer's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Georg Fischer's TSR for the last 5 years was 55%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
We're pleased to report that Georg Fischer shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 14% over one year. Of course, that includes the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 9% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Georg Fischer is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those can't be ignored...
But note: Georg Fischer may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Swiss exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About SWX:GF
Georg Fischer
Engages in the provision of piping systems, and casting and machining solutions in Europe, the Americas, Asia, and internationally.