Stock Analysis

Algonquin Power & Utilities (TSE:AQN investor three-year losses grow to 56% as the stock sheds CA$875m this past week

TSX:AQN
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Investing in stocks inevitably means buying into some companies that perform poorly. But long term Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. (TSE:AQN) shareholders have had a particularly rough ride in the last three year. Sadly for them, the share price is down 62% in that time. And the ride hasn't got any smoother in recent times over the last year, with the price 52% lower in that time. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 31% in the last 90 days.

After losing 14% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.

See our latest analysis for Algonquin Power & Utilities

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Algonquin Power & Utilities saw its share price decline over the three years in which its EPS also dropped, falling to a loss. This was, in part, due to extraordinary items impacting earnings. Since the company has fallen to a loss making position, it's hard to compare the change in EPS with the share price change. However, we can say we'd expect to see a falling share price in this scenario.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-per-share-growth
TSX:AQN Earnings Per Share Growth October 4th 2023

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Algonquin Power & Utilities' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Algonquin Power & Utilities the TSR over the last 3 years was -56%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Algonquin Power & Utilities shareholders are down 48% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 0.3%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 4% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Algonquin Power & Utilities , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

Algonquin Power & Utilities is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Canadian exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.