Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of Chorus Aviation Inc. (TSE:CHR) After Its Yearly Report

Last week, you might have seen that Chorus Aviation Inc. (TSE:CHR) released its full-year result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.6% to CA$2.25 in the past week. It was an okay result overall, with revenues coming in at CA$1.7b, roughly what the analysts had been expecting. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Chorus Aviation

Taking into account the latest results, the eight analysts covering Chorus Aviation provided consensus estimates of CA$1.64b revenue in 2024, which would reflect a noticeable 2.5% decline over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to expand 20% to CA$0.39. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CA$1.60b and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$0.50 in 2024. While next year's revenue estimates increased, there was also a pretty serious reduction to EPS expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view of these results.

There's been no major changes to the price target of CA$3.62, suggesting that the impact of higher forecast revenue and lower earnings won't result in a meaningful change to the business' valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Chorus Aviation analyst has a price target of CA$5.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CA$2.70. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Chorus Aviation's past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 2.5% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 5.6% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 7.3% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Chorus Aviation is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Chorus Aviation. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Chorus Aviation. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Chorus Aviation analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Chorus Aviation you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.