An Intrinsic Calculation For Kraken Robotics Inc. (CVE:PNG) Suggests It's 37% Undervalued

Key Insights

• Kraken Robotics' estimated fair value is CA$2.62 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Kraken Robotics is estimated to be 37% undervalued based on current share price of CA$1.64
• The CA$1.84 analyst price target for PNG is 30% less than our estimate of fair value

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Kraken Robotics Inc. (CVE:PNG) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Kraken Robotics

The Method

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF (CA$, Millions)	CA$14.0m	CA$16.2m	CA$18.5m	CA$23.6m	CA$26.6m	CA$29.1m	CA$31.3m	CA$33.1m	CA$34.6m	CA$36.0m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x2	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ 12.70%	Est @ 9.54%	Est @ 7.33%	Est @ 5.79%	Est @ 4.71%	Est @ 3.95%
Present Value (CA$, Millions) Discounted @ 6.7%	CA$13.1	CA$14.2	CA$15.2	CA$18.2	CA$19.2	CA$19.7	CA$19.9	CA$19.7	CA$19.3	CA$18.8

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CA$177m

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.2%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.7%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CA$36m× (1 + 2.2%) ÷ (6.7%– 2.2%) = CA$814m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= CA$814m÷ ( 1 + 6.7%)¹⁰= CA$426m

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CA$603m. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CA$1.6, the company appears quite good value at a 37% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

Important Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Kraken Robotics as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.097. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Kraken Robotics

Moving On:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Kraken Robotics, we've put together three further factors you should consider:

1. Risks: We feel that you should assess the 2 warning signs for Kraken Robotics (1 is a bit unpleasant!) we've flagged before making an investment in the company.
2. Future Earnings: How does PNG's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the TSXV every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.