Stock Analysis
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, Tiny Ltd. (CVE:TINY) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
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How Much Debt Does Tiny Carry?
As you can see below, at the end of June 2024, Tiny had CA$121.1m of debt, up from CA$71.4m a year ago. Click the image for more detail. On the flip side, it has CA$22.4m in cash leading to net debt of about CA$98.7m.
How Strong Is Tiny's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Tiny had liabilities of CA$60.5m due within 12 months, and liabilities of CA$109.4m due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CA$22.4m as well as receivables valued at CA$21.0m due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CA$126.6m.
Tiny has a market capitalization of CA$283.0m, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Tiny's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
In the last year Tiny wasn't profitable at an EBIT level, but managed to grow its revenue by 22%, to CA$202m. With any luck the company will be able to grow its way to profitability.
Caveat Emptor
Even though Tiny managed to grow its top line quite deftly, the cold hard truth is that it is losing money on the EBIT line. Indeed, it lost CA$6.3m at the EBIT level. When we look at that and recall the liabilities on its balance sheet, relative to cash, it seems unwise to us for the company to have any debt. Quite frankly we think the balance sheet is far from match-fit, although it could be improved with time. For example, we would not want to see a repeat of last year's loss of CA$25m. So in short it's a really risky stock. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 3 warning signs with Tiny (at least 2 which are concerning) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About TSXV:TINY
Tiny
A venture capital and private equity firm specializing in buyouts.