Analysts Are Updating Their Lightspeed Commerce Inc. (TSE:LSPD) Estimates After Its Second-Quarter Results

It's been a pretty great week for Lightspeed Commerce Inc. (TSE:LSPD) shareholders, with its shares surging 14% to CA$23.74 in the week since its latest quarterly results. The statutory results were not great - while revenues of US$277m were in line with expectations,Lightspeed Commerce lost US$0.19 a share in the process. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Lightspeed Commerce

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Lightspeed Commerce from 21 analysts is for revenues of US$1.10b in 2025. If met, it would imply a meaningful 8.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are expected to be contained, narrowing 14% from last year to US$0.78. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$1.10b and US$0.70 per share in losses. While this year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a considerable increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of CA$28.28, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Lightspeed Commerce, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CA$36.39 and the most bearish at CA$19.99 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Lightspeed Commerce's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 18% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 40% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 79 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 16% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Lightspeed Commerce's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at CA$28.28, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Lightspeed Commerce analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Lightspeed Commerce that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.