Stock Analysis

We Think CGI (TSE:GIB.A) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

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TSX:GIB.A
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Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies CGI Inc. (TSE:GIB.A) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

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What Is CGI's Debt?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of March 2021 CGI had CA$3.45b of debt, an increase on CA$3.28b, over one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of CA$1.34b, its net debt is less, at about CA$2.11b.

debt-equity-history-analysis
TSX:GIB.A Debt to Equity History June 17th 2021

How Healthy Is CGI's Balance Sheet?

The latest balance sheet data shows that CGI had liabilities of CA$4.12b due within a year, and liabilities of CA$4.03b falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of CA$1.34b and CA$2.16b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total CA$4.65b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

Given CGI has a humongous market capitalization of CA$27.3b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

CGI's net debt is only 1.00 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 18.3 times the size. So we're pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. CGI's EBIT was pretty flat over the last year, but that shouldn't be an issue given the it doesn't have a lot of debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if CGI can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the last three years, CGI recorded free cash flow worth a fulsome 80% of its EBIT, which is stronger than we'd usually expect. That positions it well to pay down debt if desirable to do so.

Our View

The good news is that CGI's demonstrated ability to cover its interest expense with its EBIT delights us like a fluffy puppy does a toddler. And that's just the beginning of the good news since its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is also very heartening. Looking at the bigger picture, we think CGI's use of debt seems quite reasonable and we're not concerned about it. While debt does bring risk, when used wisely it can also bring a higher return on equity. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with CGI .

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

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About TSX:GIB.A

CGI

CGI Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides information technology (IT) and business process services in Canada; Western, Southern, Central, and Eastern Europe; Australia; Scandinavia; Finland, Poland, and Baltics; the United States; the United Kingdom; and the Asia Pacific.

Solid track record with excellent balance sheet.