Stock Analysis

Further weakness as Alithya Group (TSE:ALYA) drops 10% this week, taking three-year losses to 57%

TSX:ALYA
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The truth is that if you invest for long enough, you're going to end up with some losing stocks. But long term Alithya Group Inc. (TSE:ALYA) shareholders have had a particularly rough ride in the last three year. Regrettably, they have had to cope with a 57% drop in the share price over that period. The more recent news is of little comfort, with the share price down 25% in a year. And the share price decline continued over the last week, dropping some 10%.

Since Alithya Group has shed CA$19m from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.

Check out our latest analysis for Alithya Group

Because Alithya Group made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually expect strong revenue growth. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one does expect good top-line growth.

In the last three years, Alithya Group saw its revenue grow by 24% per year, compound. That's well above most other pre-profit companies. The share price has moved in quite the opposite direction, down 16% over that time, a bad result. This could mean hype has come out of the stock because the losses are concerning investors. But a share price drop of that magnitude could well signal that the market is overly negative on the stock.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
TSX:ALYA Earnings and Revenue Growth January 30th 2024

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Alithya Group will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 4.4% in the last year, Alithya Group shareholders lost 25%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 9% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. Investors who like to make money usually check up on insider purchases, such as the price paid, and total amount bought. You can find out about the insider purchases of Alithya Group by clicking this link.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Canadian exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Alithya Group is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.