Curaleaf Holdings (TSX:CURA): Assessing Valuation as Ohio Expansion Strengthens U.S. Growth Strategy

Curaleaf Holdings (TSX:CURA) just announced the opening of a new dispensary near New Albany, Ohio, and it is not just about putting another pin on the map. With its future right to ownership of this location and more stores planned in the Buckeye State, Curaleaf is clearly set on growing its presence where medical and adult-use cannabis are both on the rise. The company is also leaning into community outreach, as employees volunteer at events and local charities. This move can boost goodwill for the brand alongside retail expansion.

Stepping back, this expansion comes after a stretch marked by mixed share price results. In the past month, Curaleaf’s stock dipped about 5%, though it remains up 2% for the past three months and more than 52% year to date. The longer-term chart is less forgiving, with the stock still in negative territory over the past year and lagging further over a five-year period. Momentum this year suggests some optimism returning, even as the business pursues new locations and ramps up community engagement in growth markets like Ohio.

After this latest push into Ohio, the question is whether Curaleaf’s current price offers a tempting entry for investors or if the recent gains already reflect high hopes for future expansion and market share.

Most Popular Narrative: 8.4% Undervalued

The prevailing narrative sees Curaleaf Holdings as undervalued, highlighting the company’s sizable discount to estimated fair value based on analyst cash flow and growth projections.

Rapid expansion and regulatory breakthroughs in international markets, notably the strong sequential and yearly growth in Germany, new entry into Turkey (an 87-million-person underpenetrated market), and advancements such as the first medically certified EU device, meaningfully increase Curaleaf's total addressable market. These factors also diversify revenue streams beyond the saturated U.S. market and are likely to drive sustained long-term revenue growth.

Curaleaf’s assessment isn’t just about geographic reach. What specific growth targets and ambitious future profit margins are baked into these analyst assumptions? The narrative’s reliance on robust expansion and a sharply higher earnings multiple sparks debate. Want to see which bold financial projections support the case for upside? The concrete numbers behind this valuation might surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $3.83 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, continued pricing pressure and persistent regulatory hurdles could quickly reverse optimism. This may potentially limit both revenue growth and long-term profitability for Curaleaf Holdings.

Find out about the key risks to this Curaleaf Holdings narrative.

Another View: Industry Comparison Paints a Different Picture

Looking at Curaleaf’s value from another angle, comparing its share price to industry ratios tells a different story. In this approach, Curaleaf appears pricier than many peers in its sector. Could investor optimism be running ahead of the fundamentals, or does the company’s future justify a premium?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Stay updated when valuation signals shift by adding Curaleaf Holdings to your watchlist or portfolio. Alternatively, explore our screener to discover other companies that fit your criteria.

Build Your Own Curaleaf Holdings Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dig through the numbers on your own, it’s easy to craft your own analysis and perspective in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Curaleaf Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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