Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, Aura Minerals Inc. (TSE:ORA) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
View our latest analysis for Aura Minerals
What Is Aura Minerals's Net Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2021 Aura Minerals had debt of US$90.9m, up from US$71.3m in one year. But on the other hand it also has US$98.3m in cash, leading to a US$7.37m net cash position.
A Look At Aura Minerals' Liabilities
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Aura Minerals had liabilities of US$130.1m falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$115.3m due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had US$98.3m in cash and US$40.8m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$106.2m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
Since publicly traded Aura Minerals shares are worth a total of US$691.9m, it seems unlikely that this level of liabilities would be a major threat. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse. While it does have liabilities worth noting, Aura Minerals also has more cash than debt, so we're pretty confident it can manage its debt safely.
Even more impressive was the fact that Aura Minerals grew its EBIT by 231% over twelve months. That boost will make it even easier to pay down debt going forward. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Aura Minerals's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. While Aura Minerals has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. Looking at the most recent three years, Aura Minerals recorded free cash flow of 25% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.
Summing up
While Aura Minerals does have more liabilities than liquid assets, it also has net cash of US$7.37m. And it impressed us with its EBIT growth of 231% over the last year. So is Aura Minerals's debt a risk? It doesn't seem so to us. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should learn about the 4 warning signs we've spotted with Aura Minerals (including 1 which is potentially serious) .
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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About TSX:ORA
Aura Minerals
A gold and copper production company, focuses on the development and operation of gold and base metal projects in the Americas.
High growth potential and good value.