Revenue Beat: OceanaGold Corporation Exceeded Revenue Forecasts By 13% And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

Shareholders of OceanaGold Corporation (TSE:OGC) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 19% to CA$22.56 following its latest quarterly results. OceanaGold beat revenue forecasts by a solid 13% to hit US$432m. Statutory earnings per share came in at US$0.78, in line with expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for OceanaGold from four analysts is for revenues of US$1.73b in 2025. If met, it would imply a decent 11% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be US$1.60, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.65b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.12 in 2025. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on OceanaGold after the latest results; even though they upped their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a large cut to per-share earnings expectations.

See our latest analysis for OceanaGold

The consensus price target was unchanged at CA$26.22, suggesting the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite some adjustments to profit and revenue forecasts. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values OceanaGold at CA$30.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CA$22.06. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await OceanaGold shareholders.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of OceanaGold'shistorical trends, as the 22% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 20% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 15% annually. So it's pretty clear that OceanaGold is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CA$26.22, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on OceanaGold. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple OceanaGold analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with OceanaGold , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.