The Bull Case For Nutrien (TSX:NTR) Could Change Following Upgraded Potash Sales Guidance Amid Supply Shifts

Reviewed by Sasha Jovanovic
- On September 25, 2025, Nutrien Ltd. held a special call to address updated full-year potash sales guidance amid significant industry supply-demand shifts.
- This move signals Nutrien's management confidence in responding to robust global fertilizer demand and tightening supply conditions across the sector.
- With Nutrien raising its potash sales outlook, we now assess how this development could alter the company’s long-term growth narrative.
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Nutrien Investment Narrative Recap
The case for owning Nutrien centers on the belief that global food demand and supply constraints will continue to support robust fertilizer volumes and pricing power. The company's recent upgrade to full-year potash sales guidance reinforces this thesis and may strengthen short-term momentum, but the risk of shifting agricultural practices and technological advances in crop nutrition remains an important consideration for future revenue stability.
Among recent developments, Nutrien's decision to revise its potash sales volume guidance stands out, directly reflecting management's response to ongoing supply-demand tightness. For shareholders and market watchers, this announcement is closely tied to the current thesis that tight industry supply and demand fundamentals are key near-term catalysts.
However, in contrast, investors should be mindful that advances in crop nutrition alternatives could challenge Nutrien’s reliance on traditional fertilizers...
Read the full narrative on Nutrien (it's free!)
Nutrien is expected to reach $27.5 billion in revenue and $2.3 billion in earnings by 2028. This outlook assumes annual revenue growth of 3.2% and a $0.9 billion increase in earnings from the current $1.4 billion.
Uncover how Nutrien's forecasts yield a CA$86.17 fair value, a 4% upside to its current price.
Exploring Other Perspectives
Simply Wall St Community members provided 11 different fair value estimates for Nutrien, ranging from CA$67 to CA$102.68 per share. While expectations for continued global potash demand are influencing market sentiment, it's clear opinions on Nutrien’s long-term risk and reward tradeoff vary, consider checking out these individual perspectives for a fuller view.
Explore 11 other fair value estimates on Nutrien - why the stock might be worth as much as 24% more than the current price!
Build Your Own Nutrien Narrative
Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.
- A great starting point for your Nutrien research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
- Our free Nutrien research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Nutrien's overall financial health at a glance.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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