Should Investors Rethink Kinross After 178% Surge and Fresh Gold Price Highs in 2025?

If you have been watching Kinross Gold, you might be wondering whether it is time to jump in, take profits, or simply hold steady. The past year has seen this stock surge an incredible 178.8%, and the momentum only seems to be picking up speed. In the last week alone, Kinross shares climbed 13.7%. Over the past month, they are up an impressive 23.8%. That kind of rapid growth often gets people talking, and for good reason. It is not every day a stock outpaces the broader market by such dramatic margins.

So, what is driving these moves? Part of it is the broader rally in gold prices, as investors seek safe haven assets amid shifting global economic conditions. There is also a sense that risk perception around gold miners like Kinross is improving, potentially boosting confidence in the sector overall. With a year-to-date return of 171.7% and eye-popping three- and five-year returns of 772.7% and 271.4% respectively, it is clear that Kinross has captured the attention of growth-focused investors.

Of course, past performance is only one part of the puzzle. For anyone considering what comes next, understanding the company’s valuation is critical. By one scorecard, Kinross Gold receives a valuation score of 2 out of 6, suggesting it is seen as undervalued in just two key areas. But how do those checks really stack up, and what do they mean for potential upside? Let us dig deeper into the different approaches to valuing Kinross, and later, explore a way to gauge value that every investor should know about.

Kinross Gold scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Kinross Gold Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates a company's intrinsic value by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to today's value. For Kinross Gold, this involves taking the company's expected future Free Cash Flows (FCF) and adjusting them for the time value of money to arrive at an estimate of what the company is truly worth now.

Currently, Kinross Gold is generating Free Cash Flow of $1.62 Billion. While analysts provide detailed projections for the next five years, estimates for the long term are extrapolated to complete the DCF analysis. By 2029, projections show FCF of about $1.23 Billion, with further years extending through declining cash flow growth rates.

Using this two-stage DCF with Free Cash Flow to Equity, the estimated intrinsic value of Kinross Gold's shares is $26.37. However, when compared to the current market price, the analysis finds the stock is trading at a 46.8% premium to its intrinsic value. This significant overvaluation suggests the market is already pricing in optimistic growth or other favorable factors far in advance.

Result: OVERVALUED

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Kinross Gold.

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Kinross Gold may be overvalued by 46.8%. Find undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

Approach 2: Kinross Gold Price vs Earnings

For profitable companies like Kinross Gold, the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is often the most widely used valuation metric. The PE ratio reflects how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of current earnings, making it helpful for comparing companies in the same industry. When a company’s growth prospects are strong and risks are lower, a higher “normal” or “fair” PE ratio can be justified. Conversely, weaker growth or elevated risk typically mean a lower PE is appropriate.

Kinross Gold currently trades at a PE ratio of 22x. Compared to the Metals and Mining industry average of about 23.7x, Kinross is slightly below sector norms. Its peer group is priced even higher at 43.8x, highlighting the market’s optimism for competitors in the same space.

Rather than relying only on basic peer or industry comparisons, Simply Wall St introduces the concept of a “Fair Ratio.” This proprietary metric factors in a range of important variables, including Kinross’s earnings growth outlook, profit margins, risk profile, industry, and market capitalization. This approach aims to give a more tailored valuation benchmark for the business in its unique context.

For Kinross Gold, the Fair PE Ratio is 19.9x. Since the current PE of 22x is within a reasonable margin of this fair value, it suggests that the stock is priced about right according to its financial fundamentals.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Kinross Gold Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is a simple, user-driven story that connects your personal perspective on a company—where you think its revenue, earnings, and margins are headed—to your own estimate of fair value. Rather than focusing only on ratios and historical data, Narratives allow you to link Kinross Gold’s unique business drivers and risks to a financial forecast, generating a fair value that reflects your outlook. This approach is available right now on Simply Wall St’s Community page (trusted by millions of investors). It is easy to access and updates dynamically whenever new information emerges, like quarterly results or news headlines.

Narratives empower you to decide when to buy or sell by comparing your Fair Value to the current share price. For example, among Kinross Gold Narratives, one investor may see persistent inflation and robust project expansion as reasons to target a CA$29.93 fair value, while another, more cautious investor focuses on regulatory risks and long-term production challenges, landing at just CA$9.98. Your view might fall anywhere between these values, making Narratives a powerful tool for informed decision making aligned with your convictions.

Do you think there's more to the story for Kinross Gold? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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