Is Kinross Set for More Gains After 165% Rally and Gold’s New Highs in 2025?

Thinking about what to do with Kinross Gold stock right now? You are not alone. This gold miner has been on an absolute tear lately, rocketing up 4.0% in just the last week and piling onto a 20.5% gain for the month. Zoom out, and the story gets even more impressive. Kinross has surged 135.6% so far this year and is up a stunning 165% over the last twelve months. If you bought in three years ago, you are looking at a 582.7% return. That is not just keeping up with the broader sector; that is leaving it in the dust.

Much of the recent momentum comes as gold prices notch new highs and investors grow more interested in inflation hedges, but there is also a shift in how the market perceives risk. Investors are increasingly rewarding companies with strong production growth and disciplined balance sheets, and Kinross finds itself right in that sweet spot. Despite these gains, the key question remains: is the stock still undervalued, or is now the time to take profits?

Looking at commonly used valuation metrics, Kinross Gold earns a value score of 2 out of 6 on our scale, meaning it appears undervalued in two checks but not across the board. We will look at each valuation approach shortly, and then I will share an even more insightful way to think about the true worth of Kinross Gold.

Kinross Gold scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Kinross Gold Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model projects a company’s future cash flows and then discounts them back to today’s dollars to estimate what the business is truly worth. For Kinross Gold, this analysis uses the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, which considers cash flow growth for several years ahead before leveling off.

Currently, Kinross is generating Free Cash Flow (FCF) of about $1.62 billion. Analyst estimates extend only a few years into the future, but projections reach as far as 2035 using extrapolations. By 2029, Kinross’s FCF is expected to be $1.16 billion, and the following years anticipate a gradual decline, which is typical as mining assets mature. All values here are in US dollars.

According to this DCF analysis, the fair value of Kinross Gold stock is $25.51 per share. However, the model implies the current share price already stands 31.7% above this value. This suggests the market is pricing in much stronger prospects than the model’s assumptions justify.

Result: OVERVALUED

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Kinross Gold.

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Kinross Gold may be overvalued by 31.7%. Find undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

Approach 2: Kinross Gold Price vs Earnings

The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is the preferred metric for valuing profitable companies like Kinross Gold because it links the company’s current share price to its earnings power. A “normal” or fair PE ratio takes into account market expectations for a company’s growth, how risky its business model is, and broader industry norms. Companies with strong growth prospects or greater stability often trade at higher PE ratios, while riskier, slower-growing businesses tend to sit below the average.

Kinross Gold currently trades at a PE of 19.2x. That is slightly below the metals and mining industry average of 21.6x and well under the peer group average of 40.0x. On the surface, this suggests the market sees Kinross as less favorably than some peers, but it could also indicate better value for investors.

However, just comparing to the industry or to similar companies does not give the full picture. Simply Wall St’s proprietary Fair Ratio, calculated based on factors such as Kinross's profit margins, recent earnings growth, risks, size, and its industry, provides a more precise benchmark. For Kinross Gold, that Fair Ratio is 16.1x. This means Kinross Gold is actually trading just above what would be considered fair based on its unique attributes and outlook. The difference between the current PE and the Fair Ratio is not substantial, suggesting the stock is priced about right by the market on earnings grounds.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Kinross Gold Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let’s introduce you to Narratives. Put simply, a Narrative is your chance to write the story behind the numbers: the assumptions, forecasts, and beliefs that shape how you value a company like Kinross Gold. Narratives connect a company’s big-picture story to specific financial forecasts and ultimately to a fair value, giving clarity to what you believe should happen next.

Narratives are easy to create and update and are available to all investors on Simply Wall St’s Community page, where millions participate. With Narratives, you are not just relying on static valuation models; instead, you can set your own expectations for revenue, earnings, margins, and risk, then instantly see what a fair price would be based on those assumptions. Whenever news breaks or Kinross Gold reports earnings, the Narrative updates dynamically, letting your investment thesis evolve in real time.

This approach helps investors make smarter buy or sell decisions by directly comparing their estimated Fair Value with the current share price. For example, on Kinross Gold, one investor might predict gold prices will remain high and see a Fair Value of CA$29.93, while another worried about rising costs might have a more cautious outlook and see just CA$9.98. Narratives make these differences clear, helping each investor act confidently on their own view of the business.

Do you think there's more to the story for Kinross Gold? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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