Assessing Hudbay Minerals After a 98% Year To Date Surge in 2025

• If you are wondering whether Hudbay Minerals is still a smart buy after its huge run up, you are not alone. This is exactly where valuation starts to matter most.
• The stock is up 4.3% over the last week, 9.0% over the past month, and an eye catching 98.0% year to date, building on a 94.1% 1 year gain and a massive 234.8% return over 3 years.
• Much of this momentum has been driven by stronger copper sentiment and renewed interest in miners leveraged to long term electrification themes, with Hudbay frequently highlighted in market commentary as a beneficiary of potential supply tightness. In addition, recent asset optimization updates and balance sheet improvements have reinforced the narrative that the company is better positioned for the next phase of the commodity cycle.
• Despite that rally, Hudbay scores a solid 5/6 on our valuation checks, suggesting the market may not have fully priced in its fundamentals yet. Next we will walk through different valuation approaches to see what they imply for the stock, before finishing with a more holistic way to think about its true worth.

Hudbay Minerals delivered 94.1% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Metals and Mining industry.

Approach 1: Hudbay Minerals Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

The Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a business is worth by projecting the cash it can generate in the future and then discounting those cash flows back to today to reflect risk and time.

Hudbay Minerals most recent Free Cash Flow is about $341.3 Million, and analyst forecasts combined with longer term extrapolations suggest this could rise to roughly $1.1 Billion by 2035. These projections are based on a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model, where the first few years rely on analyst estimates and the later years are extended by Simply Wall St using gradually slowing growth assumptions.

When all those future cash flows are discounted back to today, the model arrives at an intrinsic value of about $57.52 per share. Compared with the current share price, this implies the stock is trading at a 57.8% discount, indicating that the market price does not yet reflect the company’s modeled long term cash generation.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Hudbay Minerals is undervalued by 57.8%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 919 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Hudbay Minerals.

Approach 2: Hudbay Minerals Price vs Earnings

For profitable companies like Hudbay Minerals, the price to earnings, or PE, ratio is a practical way to gauge whether investors are paying a reasonable price for each dollar of current earnings. In general, companies with stronger growth prospects and lower perceived risk can justify a higher PE, while slower growing or riskier names typically deserve a lower multiple.

Hudbay currently trades on a PE of about 14.9x, which sits below both the broader Metals and Mining industry average of roughly 20.6x and the peer group average of around 25.6x. On the surface, that discount suggests the market is more cautious about Hudbay’s outlook than it is about many of its competitors.

Simply Wall St also calculates a Fair Ratio, its proprietary estimate of what a normal PE should be once factors like earnings growth, industry positioning, profit margins, market cap and company specific risks are accounted for. This tends to be more informative than a simple comparison with peers or the sector, because it adjusts for how Hudbay’s fundamentals differ from the average miner. For Hudbay, the Fair PE Ratio is 18.1x, noticeably higher than its current 14.9x, implying the shares still trade below what its fundamentals would justify.

Result: UNDERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1439 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Hudbay Minerals Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives. This is a simple framework on Simply Wall St’s Community page that lets you attach a clear story to your numbers by spelling out how you think Hudbay’s revenue, earnings and margins will evolve. It links that story to an explicit financial forecast and fair value, automatically compares that fair value to the current share price so you can see whether your Narrative suggests it is time to buy, hold or sell, and then updates those forecasts dynamically as new information like quarterly results or sector news comes in. For example, a bullish Hudbay Narrative might assume strong copper demand, execution at Copper World and rising margins that justify a fair value closer to the high analyst target of about CA$26. A more cautious Narrative might focus on project, cost and jurisdiction risks that anchor fair value nearer the low end, around CA$16. This shows how different but clearly defined perspectives can guide smarter, more confident decisions off the same underlying data.

Do you think there's more to the story for Hudbay Minerals? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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