Stock Analysis

Investors push GreenFirst Forest Products (TSE:GFP) 12% lower this week, company's increasing losses might be to blame

TSX:GFP
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It hasn't been the best quarter for GreenFirst Forest Products Inc. (TSE:GFP) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 22% in that time. But that doesn't change the fact that shareholders have received really good returns over the last five years. In fact, the share price is 236% higher today. To some, the recent pullback wouldn't be surprising after such a fast rise. Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean it's cheap now. Unfortunately not all shareholders will have held it for the long term, so spare a thought for those caught in the 42% decline over the last twelve months.

Since the long term performance has been good but there's been a recent pullback of 12%, let's check if the fundamentals match the share price.

See our latest analysis for GreenFirst Forest Products

Because GreenFirst Forest Products made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally expect to see good revenue growth. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one does expect good top-line growth.

For the last half decade, GreenFirst Forest Products can boast revenue growth at a rate of 76% per year. That's well above most pre-profit companies. Meanwhile, its share price performance certainly reflects the strong growth, given the share price grew at 27% per year, compound, during the period. This suggests the market has well and truly recognized the progress the business has made. GreenFirst Forest Products seems like a high growth stock - so growth investors might want to add it to their watchlist.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
TSX:GFP Earnings and Revenue Growth January 6th 2024

Take a more thorough look at GreenFirst Forest Products' financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

Investors should note that there's a difference between GreenFirst Forest Products' total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. We note that GreenFirst Forest Products' TSR, at 662% is higher than its share price return of 236%. When you consider it hasn't been paying a dividend, this data suggests shareholders have benefitted from a spin-off, or had the opportunity to acquire attractively priced shares in a discounted capital raising.

A Different Perspective

Investors in GreenFirst Forest Products had a tough year, with a total loss of 42%, against a market gain of about 6.8%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 50%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand GreenFirst Forest Products better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for GreenFirst Forest Products that you should be aware of.

We will like GreenFirst Forest Products better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Canadian exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether GreenFirst Forest Products is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.