Is Fortuna Silver Mines (TSE:FVI) A Risky Investment?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
August 09, 2021
TSX:FVI
Source: Shutterstock

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. Importantly, Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. (TSE:FVI) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

When Is Debt A Problem?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for Fortuna Silver Mines

How Much Debt Does Fortuna Silver Mines Carry?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Fortuna Silver Mines had debt of US$159.9m at the end of March 2021, a reduction from US$188.8m over a year. However, it does have US$146.5m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$13.3m.

debt-equity-history-analysis
TSX:FVI Debt to Equity History August 9th 2021

How Strong Is Fortuna Silver Mines' Balance Sheet?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Fortuna Silver Mines had liabilities of US$206.8m due within 12 months and liabilities of US$109.4m due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$146.5m as well as receivables valued at US$73.3m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$96.4m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

Given Fortuna Silver Mines has a market capitalization of US$1.30b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. However, we do think it is worth keeping an eye on its balance sheet strength, as it may change over time. Carrying virtually no net debt, Fortuna Silver Mines has a very light debt load indeed.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

Fortuna Silver Mines has barely any net debt, as demonstrated by its net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 0.084. Happily, it actually managed to receive more interest than it paid, over the last year. So it's fair to say it can handle debt like an Olympic ice-skater handles a pirouette. Even more impressive was the fact that Fortuna Silver Mines grew its EBIT by 186% over twelve months. If maintained that growth will make the debt even more manageable in the years ahead. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Fortuna Silver Mines's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, Fortuna Silver Mines burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.

Our View

Happily, Fortuna Silver Mines's impressive interest cover implies it has the upper hand on its debt. But we must concede we find its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow has the opposite effect. Looking at all the aforementioned factors together, it strikes us that Fortuna Silver Mines can handle its debt fairly comfortably. Of course, while this leverage can enhance returns on equity, it does bring more risk, so it's worth keeping an eye on this one. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Fortuna Silver Mines (2 are a bit concerning!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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