Is It Too Late To Consider B2Gold After Its 73% Year To Date Surge?

• If you're wondering whether B2Gold is still good value after its recent run, you're not alone. This article is going to unpack exactly what the current price is really baking in.
• The stock has climbed 2.9% over the last week, 12.0% over the past month, and is up a striking 73.3% year to date, with a 65.1% gain over the last year and 51.6% over three years.
• These moves have come as gold prices have stayed elevated and investors have rotated back into precious metals names, pushing well positioned producers like B2Gold higher. At the same time, the market has been reassessing geopolitical and macro risks, which often boosts interest in established gold miners as a potential hedge.
• Even after this rally, B2Gold scores a 3/6 valuation check score, suggesting some aspects of the stock still look undervalued on our framework. Next, we will walk through the different valuation approaches behind that number, and later in the article explore an even more powerful way to think about what B2Gold is really worth.

Find out why B2Gold's 65.1% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.

Approach 1: B2Gold Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a company is worth by projecting the cash it can generate in the future and then discounting those cash flows back to today using a required rate of return.

For B2Gold, the latest twelve month Free Cash Flow is negative at about $248 million, reflecting recent investment and operating pressures. Analysts expect a sharp turnaround, with Free Cash Flow projected to rise to around $1.86 billion by 2029. Beyond the initial analyst forecast window, Simply Wall St extends the projections out to 2035 using a two stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, gradually tapering growth as the business matures.

When all these future cash flows are discounted back to today, the DCF model arrives at an intrinsic value of about $44.26 per share. Compared to the current share price, this implies B2Gold is trading at roughly an 85.5% discount to its estimated fair value. This suggests the market is pricing in far more risk than the cash flow outlook alone would justify.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests B2Gold is undervalued by 85.5%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 908 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for B2Gold.

Approach 2: B2Gold Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company like B2Gold, the Price to Earnings (PE) ratio is a practical way to gauge value because it links what investors pay directly to the profits the business generates today. In general, companies with faster, more reliable earnings growth and lower perceived risk can justify a higher PE, while slower growth or higher risk should translate into a lower, more cautious multiple.

B2Gold currently trades on a PE of about 28.4x, which is above both the Metals and Mining industry average of roughly 20.9x and the peer group average of around 26.5x. At first glance, that premium suggests the market is willing to pay up for its earnings, possibly reflecting expectations for stronger future growth or a relatively attractive asset base compared to other miners.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio framework goes a step further than simple peer comparisons, estimating what PE multiple a stock should trade on given its earnings growth outlook, profitability, risk profile, industry, and market capitalization. For B2Gold, the Fair Ratio is 44.2x, comfortably higher than today’s 28.4x. On this basis, the current PE implies the shares are still pricing in less optimism than the fundamentals would support.

Result: UNDERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1446 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your B2Gold Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, an easy tool on Simply Wall St’s Community page that lets you turn your view of B2Gold’s story into a concrete forecast for revenue, earnings, margins, and ultimately a Fair Value you can compare with today’s price to decide whether to buy, hold, or sell. The platform keeps that Narrative dynamically updated as new news or earnings arrive. For example, one investor might build a bullish B2Gold Narrative that assumes Goose Mine ramps smoothly, Mali permits remain supportive, margins expand and justifies a Fair Value closer to the upper analyst target around CA$7.99. A more cautious investor might emphasize political risk, cost overruns, and climate or regulatory challenges and land nearer the lower CA$5.36 target. Both are using the same simple structure that links story, forecast, and valuation in a transparent, numbers-backed way.

Do you think there's more to the story for B2Gold? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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