Is B2Gold’s Rally Justified After 41% Surge and Bullish Analyst Targets in 2025?

If you are weighing what to do about B2Gold stock right now, you are far from alone. With gold prices remaining in focus and mining companies coming back into favor, B2Gold has caught the market’s attention thanks to some compelling moves. Its share price is up roughly 41% year-to-date and has rallied more than 14% over the past month. These are not just small waves; these are solid surges that speak to renewed optimism and, perhaps, shifting risk appetites toward the sector.

At a closing price of CA$5.22, B2Gold currently trades at a hefty 32% discount to analysts’ average target. That is a sizable gap, especially when you combine it with the company’s strong annual revenue and a striking 72% jump in net income over the past year, despite a one-year total return just above 41%. Investors are clearly revisiting their stance on miners, and B2Gold’s recent performance suggests there might be more room to run if the momentum holds.

Most interesting for valuation-focused investors, B2Gold earns a value score of 5 out of 6 on key metrics that highlight undervaluation. This makes it one of the more compelling names in its peer group from a fundamental perspective. Up next, I will break down exactly how that score was earned, which checks the company passed, and why some methods can still miss the full story. There is an even sharper insight waiting at the end.

B2Gold delivered 41.4% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Metals and Mining industry.

Approach 1: B2Gold Cash Flows

A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates a company’s true worth by projecting its future free cash flows and then discounting those projections back to today’s value. This method is popular with valuation-focused investors because it attempts to capture the real earning power of a business over time.

Based on B2Gold's most recent results, the company reported last twelve months free cash flow (FCF) of negative $297 million. However, consensus analyst forecasts point to a sharp turnaround, with FCF reaching $1.98 billion by 2029. Over the next decade, projections indicate sustained growth, with free cash flow expected to rise into the $3.6 billion range by 2035. These strong future estimates reflect optimistic expectations for both operational expansion and improved efficiency.

After modeling these cash flows with a two-stage approach, the intrinsic value for B2Gold is estimated at CA$68.63 per share. When compared to the current share price of CA$5.22, the DCF model implies the stock is 92.4% undervalued. This suggests the market may be overlooking B2Gold’s long-term cash-generating potential.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our DCF analysis suggests B2Gold is undervalued by 92.4%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover more undervalued stocks based on DCF analysis.

Approach 2: B2Gold Price vs Sales

For mining companies like B2Gold, the Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio is often used as a fair measure of value, especially when profits can swing due to changes in commodity prices and investment cycles. The P/S multiple provides investors with a straightforward starting point to compare companies, as it is less affected by accounting differences or unusual profits and losses.

Growth expectations and perceived risks help determine what a "normal" or "fair" P/S ratio looks like for any given stock. Companies with stronger growth outlooks or lower risk typically trade at higher P/S multiples, while slower growth or greater risk means the market requires a discount.

Currently, B2Gold trades on a Price-to-Sales ratio of 2.3x. This is notably lower than both the peer average of 9.0x and the broader Metals and Mining industry average of 3.8x. Simply Wall St’s “Fair Ratio” model, which considers B2Gold’s future prospects, profit margins, and industry position, arrives at a fair P/S multiple of 5.2x. With the company’s current multiple well below this fair value benchmark, the numbers suggest B2Gold may be undervalued on this measure, and could offer upside if sentiment shifts.

Result: UNDERVALUED

PS ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your B2Gold Narrative

A Narrative is a simple but powerful way to link your own view of a company’s story to clear financial forecasts and a fair value. This method goes beyond just numbers to reflect what you actually believe about the business and where it’s headed.

With Simply Wall St, building or exploring Narratives is straightforward for investors of any experience level. These adaptable tools let you express your view, or see how millions of community members are thinking, by connecting the latest facts, forecasts, and risks into a live valuation story.

When you create a Narrative, you pick assumptions such as future gold prices, production ramp-up, or political stability that drive revenue, margins, and fair value. You can then instantly compare that estimated fair value to today’s share price, helping you spot opportunities or risks and decide whether to buy, hold, or sell.

Narratives are updated automatically whenever B2Gold’s story changes, whether from breaking news, new earnings, or major developments. This ensures your decisions can always reflect the latest landscape.

For example, one investor might see B2Gold’s price nearly doubling to CA$8.00 as a result of successful mine ramp-ups and strong gold markets. Another investor, concerned about political or operational risks, might set a fair value closer to CA$4.71. Narratives help you compare these perspectives and choose the one that fits your own outlook.

Do you think there's more to the story for B2Gold? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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