Earnings Miss: Alamos Gold Inc. Missed EPS By 79% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Alamos Gold Inc. (TSE:AGI), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its first-quarter results last week. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$333m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 79%, coming in at just US$0.04 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Alamos Gold's ten analysts is for revenues of US$1.72b in 2025. This would reflect a huge 23% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 85% to US$1.14. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.74b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.22 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

View our latest analysis for Alamos Gold

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at CA$47.79, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Alamos Gold analyst has a price target of CA$51.04 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CA$44.90. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Alamos Gold is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Alamos Gold's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 31% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 13% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 14% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Alamos Gold to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Alamos Gold analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.