Can Barrick (TSX:ABX) Balance Operational Stability With Political Risks After Mali Mine Restart?

• Barrick Mining announced that its Loulo-Gounkoto gold mine in Mali has resumed operations after a nine-month shutdown due to tensions with the country’s military government, following an agreement that allows payments to state-controlled contractors to restart.
• This development marks a return of a key production asset and highlights Barrick's ongoing exposure to political risks in certain regions.
• We will explore how the restart of Loulo-Gounkoto could impact Barrick's long-term growth strategy and operational stability.

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Barrick Mining Investment Narrative Recap

Being a Barrick Mining shareholder means believing in increased gold and copper demand, the value of Tier 1 mines, and the firm's disciplined capital allocation. The restart of Loulo-Gounkoto brings back vital production but serves as a reminder of Barrick’s exposure to political risks in less stable regions, a risk that could still disrupt future revenue. At the same time, this event does not materially alter the most immediate growth catalyst, which remains the company’s ongoing expansion at core assets like Lumwana.

Among the company’s recent milestones, the $2 billion Lumwana expansion is particularly relevant, as it aims to boost copper output significantly and diversify geographic risk. This effort supports Barrick’s strategy to capitalize on the long-term demand outlook for copper while reducing reliance on assets in politically volatile areas, complementing the Loulo-Gounkoto news by highlighting the balance of risk and opportunity in the portfolio.

By contrast, not all regions carry the same risk profile, investors should be aware of how sudden operational interruptions can...

Read the full narrative on Barrick Mining (it's free!)

Barrick Mining's outlook anticipates $19.4 billion in revenue and $5.0 billion in earnings by 2028. This scenario is built on an assumed 11.9% annual revenue growth rate and a $2.2 billion increase in earnings from the current $2.8 billion.

Uncover how Barrick Mining's forecasts yield a CA$48.36 fair value, a 10% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Thirteen members of the Simply Wall St Community set fair values for Barrick ranging from CA$30.55 to CA$60 per share. With political risks still present in Mali and some other regions, you can see why different perspectives on Barrick's outlook exist, explore these alternative viewpoints to shape your own assessment.

Explore 13 other fair value estimates on Barrick Mining - why the stock might be worth as much as 36% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Barrick Mining Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Barrick Mining research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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