Assessing Barrick Gold (TSX:ABX) Valuation After Recent Share Price Momentum

Barrick Mining (TSX:ABX) has quietly caught the attention of investors this month thanks to a strong run in its share price. The movement isn’t tied to any single headline-making event. As the stock picks up steam, many are asking if it signals something deeper about the company’s future. Sometimes, a period of relative calm followed by a substantial shift is the market’s way of reconsidering a stock’s value, or at least reassessing potential growth ahead.

A quick look at the numbers shows why Barrick Mining is back on investor radars. The shares have now climbed 23% in the past month and are up nearly 33% over the year, with year-to-date returns running even higher. That kind of momentum stands out, especially considering the stock’s more modest performance over the past five years. The company’s recent annual revenue and net income growth help explain some of the renewed optimism. There is now a sense that market sentiment could be shifting in Barrick’s favor after a period in the shadows.

After such a strong showing over the past year, are investors looking at a compelling value opportunity with Barrick Mining, or is the market already pricing in all the future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 3.2% Undervalued

According to community narrative, Barrick Mining is currently assessed to be undervalued by 3.2% based on forward-looking projections for its earnings, revenue growth, and profitability. The fair value, as estimated by consensus analysts, is slightly above the current market price, suggesting moderate upside potential in the share price.

Significant ongoing expansion of both gold and copper production capacity, particularly at Lumwana and via organic growth at Fourmile and Reko Diq, positions Barrick to capture elevated long-term demand for gold, as a financial hedge during geopolitical uncertainty and inflation, and copper, driven by electrification and infrastructure investment. This expansion is expected to support top-line revenue growth over the coming decade.

What’s fueling this price target? Analysts are betting on some ambitious growth in key operating metrics. How bold are these projections? The assumptions driving this narrative may surprise you, especially when it comes to how they see future margins, revenues, and shareholder returns playing out. Curious what’s behind the math? You’ll want to check out the full reasoning for this valuation.

Result: Fair Value of $37.44 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent political instability and escalating ESG requirements could quickly challenge these outlooks. This may create new headwinds for Barrick’s growth story.

Find out about the key risks to this Barrick Mining narrative.

Another View: Discounted Cash Flow Perspective

Taking a step back from analyst targets, our DCF model paints a similar undervalued picture for Barrick Mining. This suggests the shares may be trading below their intrinsic worth. However, do all models see the same opportunity, or could there be hidden risks behind the optimism?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Barrick Mining for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Barrick Mining Narrative

If you see things differently or want to investigate the numbers yourself, you can easily put together your own viewpoint in just a few minutes. do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Barrick Mining.

Looking for More Investment Ideas?

Don’t stop at Barrick Mining. There is a wide range of smart investment opportunities available. Consider these dynamic stock picks to inspire your next move and help you explore strategies that could set you apart in today’s market:

• Capitalize on high-yield potential by searching for stocks that deliver reliable returns using our list of dividend stocks with yields > 3%.
• Tap into the AI revolution by checking out emerging market leaders through our gateway to AI penny stocks.
• Strengthen your portfolio with healthcare innovators powered by technology when you browse our curated collection of healthcare AI stocks.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com