Results: Barrick Gold Corporation Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

It's been a good week for Barrick Gold Corporation (TSE:ABX) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest annual results, and the shares gained 6.4% to CA$26.19. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$13b, statutory earnings beat expectations 6.8%, with Barrick Gold reporting profits of US$1.22 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Barrick Gold

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Barrick Gold's seven analysts is for revenues of US$13.5b in 2025. This reflects a credible 4.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 29% to US$1.58. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$15.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.66 in 2025. It looks like sentiment has fallen somewhat in the aftermath of these results, with a substantial drop in revenue estimates and a small dip in earnings per share numbers as well.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the CA$31.30 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Barrick Gold, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CA$38.51 and the most bearish at CA$26.78 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting Barrick Gold's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 4.7% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 0.9% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see revenue growth of 15% annually. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, Barrick Gold is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Barrick Gold going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Barrick Gold that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.