Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies Tethys Petroleum Limited (CVE:TPL) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
See our latest analysis for Tethys Petroleum
What Is Tethys Petroleum's Net Debt?
As you can see below, Tethys Petroleum had US$6.30m of debt at September 2021, down from US$9.57m a year prior. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$658.0k, its net debt is less, at about US$5.64m.
How Healthy Is Tethys Petroleum's Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Tethys Petroleum had liabilities of US$20.1m due within a year, and liabilities of US$13.1m falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$658.0k and US$3.25m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$29.3m.
This deficit isn't so bad because Tethys Petroleum is worth US$80.8m, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is Tethys Petroleum's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
In the last year Tethys Petroleum wasn't profitable at an EBIT level, but managed to grow its revenue by 14%, to US$11m. That rate of growth is a bit slow for our taste, but it takes all types to make a world.
Caveat Emptor
Importantly, Tethys Petroleum had an earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss over the last year. Indeed, it lost a very considerable US$39m at the EBIT level. When we look at that and recall the liabilities on its balance sheet, relative to cash, it seems unwise to us for the company to have any debt. Quite frankly we think the balance sheet is far from match-fit, although it could be improved with time. Another cause for caution is that is bled US$8.5m in negative free cash flow over the last twelve months. So in short it's a really risky stock. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Tethys Petroleum that you should be aware of.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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About TSXV:TPL
Tethys Petroleum
Acquires, explores for, and develops crude oil and natural gas fields in Kazakhstan.
Mediocre balance sheet very low.