Uranium Royalty (TSE:URC) Is Posting Solid Earnings, But It Is Not All Good News

Shareholders didn't seem to be thrilled with Uranium Royalty Corp.'s (TSE:URC) recent earnings report, despite healthy profit numbers. Our analysis suggests they may be concerned about some underlying details.

See our latest analysis for Uranium Royalty

Examining Cashflow Against Uranium Royalty's Earnings

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.

Uranium Royalty has an accrual ratio of 0.50 for the year to January 2024. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. To wit, the company did not generate one whit of free cashflow in that time. Over the last year it actually had negative free cash flow of CA$96m, in contrast to the aforementioned profit of CA$4.88m. Coming off the back of negative free cash flow last year, we imagine some shareholders might wonder if its cash burn of CA$96m, this year, indicates high risk. Notably, the company has issued new shares, thus diluting existing shareholders and reducing their share of future earnings.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

To understand the value of a company's earnings growth, it is imperative to consider any dilution of shareholders' interests. As it happens, Uranium Royalty issued 21% more new shares over the last year. As a result, its net income is now split between a greater number of shares. To celebrate net income while ignoring dilution is like rejoicing because you have a single slice of a larger pizza, but ignoring the fact that the pizza is now cut into many more slices. You can see a chart of Uranium Royalty's EPS by clicking here.

A Look At The Impact Of Uranium Royalty's Dilution On Its Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Uranium Royalty was losing money three years ago. Zooming in to the last year, we still can't talk about growth rates coherently, since it made a loss last year. What we do know is that while it's great to see a profit over the last twelve months, that profit would have been better, on a per share basis, if the company hadn't needed to issue shares. So you can see that the dilution has had a bit of an impact on shareholders.

In the long term, if Uranium Royalty's earnings per share can increase, then the share price should too. But on the other hand, we'd be far less excited to learn profit (but not EPS) was improving. For that reason, you could say that EPS is more important that net income in the long run, assuming the goal is to assess whether a company's share price might grow.

Our Take On Uranium Royalty's Profit Performance

As it turns out, Uranium Royalty couldn't match its profit with cashflow and its dilution means that shareholders own less of the company than the did before (unless they bought more shares). Considering all this we'd argue Uranium Royalty's profits probably give an overly generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Uranium Royalty (including 1 which is concerning).

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.