TC Energy (TSX:TRP): Reassessing Valuation After Shares Climb 18% Over the Past Year

TC Energy (TSX:TRP) has quietly pushed higher, with the stock up about 12% year to date and roughly 18% over the past year, prompting investors to reassess its long term income and growth appeal.

See our latest analysis for TC Energy.

That steady climb has been underpinned by improving sentiment toward pipeline operators, with TC Energy’s 30 day share price return of 7.57 percent and 1 year total shareholder return of 17.62 percent suggesting momentum is gradually rebuilding after earlier volatility.

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With TC Energy now trading near analyst targets and its valuation screens flagging the stock as expensive, investors are left wondering: is there still a compelling entry point here, or is future growth already fully priced in?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 1.3% Undervalued

TC Energy’s most followed narrative pegs fair value at roughly CA$77.50, just above the last close of CA$76.48, hinting at only modest upside from here.

The analysts have a consensus price target of CA$73.952 for TC Energy based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of CA$80.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just CA$59.0.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see why steady revenue growth, slimmer margins, and a richer future earnings multiple still add up to upside in this story? The full narrative reveals the exact profit path, the long range revenue build, and the punchy valuation multiple it assumes to get there. Unlock the detailed assumptions behind that near fully priced fair value call.

Result: Fair Value of $77.50 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, structural shifts toward decarbonization and stricter climate policies could dampen long term gas demand, pressuring contract renewals, margins, and that optimistic valuation.

Find out about the key risks to this TC Energy narrative.

Another Lens On Valuation

While the narrative suggests modest upside, our valuation checks using the price to earnings ratio paint a tougher picture. TC Energy trades on 20.5 times earnings versus a fair ratio of 18.7 times and a Canadian Oil and Gas average of 14.9 times. This implies the shares are priced for a lot to go right. Could that premium compress if sentiment cools?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own TC Energy Narrative

If you see the story differently, or simply want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a custom view in minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your TC Energy research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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