Stock Analysis

Does TC Energy (TSE:TRP) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?

TSX:TRP
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David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. Importantly, TC Energy Corporation (TSE:TRP) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for TC Energy

What Is TC Energy's Debt?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at March 2023 TC Energy had debt of CA$63.8b, up from CA$53.6b in one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of CA$4.48b, its net debt is less, at about CA$59.3b.

debt-equity-history-analysis
TSX:TRP Debt to Equity History June 21st 2023

How Strong Is TC Energy's Balance Sheet?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that TC Energy had liabilities of CA$14.0b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CA$70.4b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CA$4.48b and CA$3.37b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling CA$76.6b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

When you consider that this deficiency exceeds the company's huge CA$55.2b market capitalization, you might well be inclined to review the balance sheet intently. In the scenario where the company had to clean up its balance sheet quickly, it seems likely shareholders would suffer extensive dilution.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

Weak interest cover of 2.5 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 6.5 hit our confidence in TC Energy like a one-two punch to the gut. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. Notably, TC Energy's EBIT was pretty flat over the last year, which isn't ideal given the debt load. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if TC Energy can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the last three years, TC Energy barely recorded positive free cash flow, in total. While many companies do operate at break-even, we prefer see substantial free cash flow, especially if a it already has dead.

Our View

On the face of it, TC Energy's level of total liabilities left us tentative about the stock, and its net debt to EBITDA was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. Having said that, its ability to grow its EBIT isn't such a worry. Taking into account all the aforementioned factors, it looks like TC Energy has too much debt. That sort of riskiness is ok for some, but it certainly doesn't float our boat. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Be aware that TC Energy is showing 5 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 2 of those don't sit too well with us...

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if TC Energy might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.