Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that Parkland Corporation (TSE:PKI) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for Parkland
How Much Debt Does Parkland Carry?
As you can see below, at the end of June 2022, Parkland had CA$5.88b of debt, up from CA$4.03b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, because it has a cash reserve of CA$542.0m, its net debt is less, at about CA$5.34b.
How Healthy Is Parkland's Balance Sheet?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Parkland had liabilities of CA$3.45b due within 12 months and liabilities of CA$8.16b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CA$542.0m and CA$2.27b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling CA$8.79b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This deficit casts a shadow over the CA$5.24b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. After all, Parkland would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Parkland's debt is 3.9 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 3.5 times over. Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn't want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage. Looking on the bright side, Parkland boosted its EBIT by a silky 43% in the last year. Like a mother's loving embrace of a newborn that sort of growth builds resilience, putting the company in a stronger position to manage its debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Parkland's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last three years, Parkland produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 74% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
Our View
We feel some trepidation about Parkland's difficulty level of total liabilities, but we've got positives to focus on, too. For example, its EBIT growth rate and conversion of EBIT to free cash flow give us some confidence in its ability to manage its debt. Taking the abovementioned factors together we do think Parkland's debt poses some risks to the business. So while that leverage does boost returns on equity, we wouldn't really want to see it increase from here. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Parkland (of which 1 is significant!) you should know about.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About TSX:PKI
Parkland
Operates food and convenience stores in Canada, the United States, and internationally.
Average dividend payer slight.