Peyto Exploration & Development Corp.

TSX:PEY Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$3.5b

Peyto Exploration & Development Valuation

Is PEY undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PEY when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
CA$22.57
Fair Value
20.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
11
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: PEY (CA$17.95) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$22.57)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PEY is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PEY?

Key metric: As PEY is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for PEY. This is calculated by dividing PEY's market cap by their current earnings.
What is PEY's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio12.7x
EarningsCA$280.57m
Market CapCA$3.50b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does PEY's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for PEY vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average31.7x
TPZ Topaz Energy
77.9x27.2%CA$3.6b
NVA NuVista Energy
8.1x10.1%CA$2.4b
PSK PrairieSky Royalty
24.5x4.9%CA$5.5b
IPCO International Petroleum
16.2x20.7%CA$2.2b
PEY Peyto Exploration & Development
12.7x12.8%CA$3.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PEY is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.7x) compared to the peer average (31.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PEY's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Oil and Gas Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
SGQ SouthGobi Resources
1.3xn/aUS$124.34m
ALPS.U Alpine Summit Energy Partners
1xn/aUS$24.02m
KUB.H Carcetti Capital
0.7xn/aUS$5.82m
RZE.H Razor Energy
0.1xn/aUS$3.57m
PEY 12.7xIndustry Avg. 11.7xNo. of Companies7PE0612182430+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PEY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.7x) compared to the Canadian Oil and Gas industry average (11.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PEY's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PEY PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio12.7x
Fair PE Ratio15.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: PEY is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst PEY forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$17.95
CA$19.32
+7.6%
7.1%CA$22.00CA$17.50n/a11
Apr ’26CA$18.40
CA$18.95
+3.0%
7.4%CA$22.00CA$17.00n/a10
Mar ’26CA$15.92
CA$18.80
+18.1%
7.8%CA$22.00CA$16.50n/a10
Feb ’26CA$15.69
CA$18.65
+18.9%
7.6%CA$22.00CA$16.50n/a10
Jan ’26CA$17.14
CA$18.30
+6.8%
8.5%CA$22.00CA$16.50n/a10
Dec ’25CA$16.63
CA$18.05
+8.5%
8.4%CA$22.00CA$16.50n/a10
Nov ’25CA$14.99
CA$17.83
+18.9%
9.0%CA$22.00CA$16.25n/a10
Oct ’25CA$15.69
CA$17.70
+12.8%
9.1%CA$22.00CA$16.00n/a10
Sep ’25CA$14.57
CA$17.85
+22.5%
9.0%CA$22.00CA$16.00n/a10
Aug ’25CA$14.39
CA$17.80
+23.7%
9.3%CA$22.00CA$15.50n/a10
Jul ’25CA$14.58
CA$17.85
+22.4%
10.2%CA$22.00CA$14.50n/a10
Jun ’25CA$15.29
CA$17.86
+16.8%
9.7%CA$22.00CA$14.50n/a11
May ’25CA$15.12
CA$17.00
+12.4%
10.0%CA$20.00CA$13.50n/a11
Apr ’25CA$15.11
CA$16.68
+10.4%
9.6%CA$20.00CA$14.00CA$18.4011
Mar ’25CA$14.38
CA$15.36
+6.8%
11.9%CA$20.00CA$12.50CA$15.9211
Feb ’25CA$12.89
CA$15.59
+21.0%
13.0%CA$20.00CA$12.50CA$15.6911
Jan ’25CA$12.04
CA$16.39
+36.1%
15.8%CA$23.00CA$13.50CA$17.1411
Dec ’24CA$12.58
CA$16.89
+34.2%
13.1%CA$23.00CA$14.50CA$16.6311
Nov ’24CA$14.69
CA$16.84
+14.6%
13.2%CA$23.00CA$14.50CA$14.9911
Oct ’24CA$13.69
CA$16.47
+20.3%
15.4%CA$23.00CA$13.50CA$15.699
Sep ’24CA$12.82
CA$14.95
+16.7%
14.6%CA$21.00CA$13.00CA$14.5711
Aug ’24CA$11.52
CA$14.73
+27.8%
14.9%CA$21.00CA$13.00CA$14.3911
Jul ’24CA$10.96
CA$15.45
+41.0%
17.0%CA$23.00CA$13.00CA$14.5811
Jun ’24CA$10.84
CA$15.68
+44.7%
16.4%CA$23.00CA$13.50CA$15.2911
May ’24CA$12.30
CA$16.52
+34.3%
15.0%CA$23.00CA$13.50CA$15.1211
Apr ’24CA$12.11
CA$16.84
+39.1%
15.5%CA$24.00CA$13.50CA$15.1111
AnalystConsensusTarget
Consensus Narrative from 11 Analysts
CA$19.32
Fair Value
7.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
11
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/04/22 05:26
End of Day Share Price 2025/04/22 00:00
Earnings2024/12/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. is covered by 30 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Patrick O'RourkeATB Capital Markets
Laique Ahmad Amir ArifATB Capital Markets
Grant HoferBarclays