Paramount Resources Ltd.

TSX:POU Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$4.5b

Paramount Resources Valuation

Is POU undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of POU when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: POU (CA$30.85) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$33.14)

Significantly Below Fair Value: POU is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for POU?

Key metric: As POU is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for POU. This is calculated by dividing POU's market cap by their current earnings.
What is POU's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio12.6x
EarningsCA$360.50m
Market CapCA$4.49b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does POU's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for POU vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average25.5x
VRN Veren
10.5x11.1%CA$4.5b
TPZ Topaz Energy
71x4.2%CA$4.3b
WCP Whitecap Resources
7x-17.0%CA$6.1b
MEG MEG Energy
13.4x-1.3%CA$6.7b
POU Paramount Resources
12.6x-21.3%CA$4.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: POU is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.6x) compared to the peer average (25.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does POU's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Oil and Gas Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HAM Highwood Asset Management
1.3x-43.9%US$65.03m
ALPS.U Alpine Summit Energy Partners
1xn/aUS$24.02m
KUB.H Carcetti Capital
0.7xn/aUS$5.82m
GCOM Green Shift Commodities
1.4xn/aUS$4.93m
POU 12.6xIndustry Avg. 10.7xNo. of Companies11PE0816243240+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: POU is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.6x) compared to the Canadian Oil and Gas industry average (10.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is POU's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

POU PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio12.6x
Fair PE Ratio7.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: POU is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst POU forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$30.85
CA$39.75
+28.8%
6.9%CA$44.00CA$36.00n/a6
Nov ’25CA$26.46
CA$37.06
+40.0%
10.6%CA$43.00CA$29.00n/a9
Oct ’25CA$27.15
CA$37.28
+37.3%
10.8%CA$43.00CA$29.00n/a9
Sep ’25CA$27.73
CA$38.50
+38.8%
5.9%CA$43.00CA$36.00n/a9
Aug ’25CA$28.46
CA$38.72
+36.1%
5.5%CA$43.00CA$36.00n/a9
Jul ’25CA$31.08
CA$37.89
+21.9%
5.1%CA$42.00CA$36.00n/a9
Jun ’25CA$32.79
CA$37.80
+15.3%
4.9%CA$42.00CA$36.00n/a10
May ’25CA$30.47
CA$37.15
+21.9%
6.1%CA$42.00CA$34.00n/a10
Apr ’25CA$27.65
CA$33.33
+20.6%
8.9%CA$37.50CA$29.00n/a9
Mar ’25CA$29.94
CA$35.11
+17.3%
9.2%CA$40.00CA$30.00n/a9
Feb ’25CA$26.31
CA$35.94
+36.6%
9.6%CA$40.00CA$30.00n/a9
Jan ’25CA$25.93
CA$39.50
+52.3%
6.6%CA$42.50CA$33.00n/a9
Dec ’24CA$26.60
CA$39.95
+50.2%
3.8%CA$42.50CA$37.00n/a10
Nov ’24CA$33.56
CA$40.50
+20.7%
4.8%CA$45.00CA$37.00CA$26.4610
Oct ’24CA$32.25
CA$38.75
+20.2%
8.5%CA$42.50CA$30.00CA$27.1510
Sep ’24CA$32.21
CA$38.45
+19.4%
8.6%CA$42.50CA$30.00CA$27.7310
Aug ’24CA$31.87
CA$37.80
+18.6%
8.0%CA$40.00CA$30.00CA$28.4610
Jul ’24CA$28.80
CA$38.05
+32.1%
5.9%CA$40.00CA$33.00CA$31.0810
Jun ’24CA$28.64
CA$38.45
+34.3%
6.6%CA$42.00CA$33.00CA$32.7910
May ’24CA$31.80
CA$39.35
+23.7%
9.3%CA$46.00CA$33.00CA$30.4710
Apr ’24CA$29.60
CA$39.15
+32.3%
9.0%CA$46.00CA$32.00CA$27.6510
Mar ’24CA$30.51
CA$38.95
+27.7%
9.6%CA$46.00CA$32.00CA$29.9410
Feb ’24CA$29.98
CA$38.95
+29.9%
9.6%CA$46.00CA$32.00CA$26.3110
Jan ’24CA$28.64
CA$40.00
+39.7%
8.7%CA$46.00CA$35.00CA$25.9310
Dec ’23CA$29.88
CA$40.10
+34.2%
8.4%CA$46.00CA$36.00CA$26.6010
Nov ’23CA$31.14
CA$39.95
+28.3%
8.8%CA$46.00CA$36.00CA$33.5610

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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