Stock Analysis

Does NuVista Energy (TSE:NVA) Deserve A Spot On Your Watchlist?

TSX:NVA
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For beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to investors, even if it currently lacks a track record of revenue and profit. But as Peter Lynch said in One Up On Wall Street, 'Long shots almost never pay off.' While a well funded company may sustain losses for years, it will need to generate a profit eventually, or else investors will move on and the company will wither away.

In contrast to all that, many investors prefer to focus on companies like NuVista Energy (TSE:NVA), which has not only revenues, but also profits. While this doesn't necessarily speak to whether it's undervalued, the profitability of the business is enough to warrant some appreciation - especially if its growing.

See our latest analysis for NuVista Energy

How Fast Is NuVista Energy Growing Its Earnings Per Share?

NuVista Energy has undergone a massive growth in earnings per share over the last three years. So much so that this three year growth rate wouldn't be a fair assessment of the company's future. As a result, we'll zoom in on growth over the last year, instead. Impressively, NuVista Energy's EPS catapulted from CA$1.17 to CA$2.88, over the last year. Year on year growth of 147% is certainly a sight to behold. That could be a sign that the business has reached a true inflection point.

It's often helpful to take a look at earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) margins, as well as revenue growth, to get another take on the quality of the company's growth. The music to the ears of NuVista Energy shareholders is that EBIT margins have grown from 24% to 55% in the last 12 months and revenues are on an upwards trend as well. That's great to see, on both counts.

In the chart below, you can see how the company has grown earnings and revenue, over time. Click on the chart to see the exact numbers.

earnings-and-revenue-history
TSX:NVA Earnings and Revenue History March 25th 2023

Fortunately, we've got access to analyst forecasts of NuVista Energy's future profits. You can do your own forecasts without looking, or you can take a peek at what the professionals are predicting.

Are NuVista Energy Insiders Aligned With All Shareholders?

It should give investors a sense of security owning shares in a company if insiders also own shares, creating a close alignment their interests. NuVista Energy followers will find comfort in knowing that insiders have a significant amount of capital that aligns their best interests with the wider shareholder group. Given insiders own a significant chunk of shares, currently valued at CA$127m, they have plenty of motivation to push the business to succeed. That's certainly enough to let shareholders know that management will be very focussed on long term growth.

While it's always good to see some strong conviction in the company from insiders through heavy investment, it's also important for shareholders to ask if management compensation policies are reasonable. Well, based on the CEO pay, you'd argue that they are indeed. The median total compensation for CEOs of companies similar in size to NuVista Energy, with market caps between CA$1.4b and CA$4.4b, is around CA$3.1m.

NuVista Energy offered total compensation worth CA$2.2m to its CEO in the year to December 2021. That is actually below the median for CEO's of similarly sized companies. While the level of CEO compensation shouldn't be the biggest factor in how the company is viewed, modest remuneration is a positive, because it suggests that the board keeps shareholder interests in mind. Generally, arguments can be made that reasonable pay levels attest to good decision-making.

Should You Add NuVista Energy To Your Watchlist?

NuVista Energy's earnings per share growth have been climbing higher at an appreciable rate. The sweetener is that insiders have a mountain of stock, and the CEO remuneration is quite reasonable. The strong EPS improvement suggests the businesses is humming along. NuVista Energy certainly ticks a few boxes, so we think it's probably well worth further consideration. Still, you should learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with NuVista Energy.

Although NuVista Energy certainly looks good, it may appeal to more investors if insiders were buying up shares. If you like to see insider buying, then this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying, could be exactly what you're looking for.

Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if NuVista Energy might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.