Imperial Oil Limited's (TSE:IMO) Stock Is Going Strong: Have Financials A Role To Play?

Imperial Oil's (TSE:IMO) stock is up by a considerable 29% over the past three months. We wonder if and what role the company's financials play in that price change as a company's long-term fundamentals usually dictate market outcomes. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Imperial Oil's ROE today.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

Check out our latest analysis for Imperial Oil

How Is ROE Calculated?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Imperial Oil is:

12% = CA$2.5b ÷ CA$21b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2021).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. So, this means that for every CA$1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of CA$0.12.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

Imperial Oil's Earnings Growth And 12% ROE

To start with, Imperial Oil's ROE looks acceptable. Be that as it may, the company's ROE is still quite lower than the industry average of 17%. Further research shows that Imperial Oil's net income has shrunk at a rate of 27% over the last five years. Not to forget, the company does have a high ROE to begin with, just that it is lower than the industry average. Hence there might be some other aspects that are causing earnings to shrink. These include low earnings retention or poor allocation of capital.

That being said, we compared Imperial Oil's performance with the industry and were concerned when we found that while the company has shrunk its earnings, the industry has grown its earnings at a rate of 5.8% in the same period.

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. Has the market priced in the future outlook for IMO? You can find out in our latest intrinsic value infographic research report.

Is Imperial Oil Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

Imperial Oil's low three-year median payout ratio of 23% (or a retention ratio of 77%) over the last three years should mean that the company is retaining most of its earnings to fuel its growth but the company's earnings have actually shrunk. The low payout should mean that the company is retaining most of its earnings and consequently, should see some growth. So there could be some other explanations in that regard. For example, the company's business may be deteriorating.

In addition, Imperial Oil has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company's future payout ratio is expected to rise to 27% over the next three years. Regardless, the ROE is not expected to change much for the company despite the higher expected payout ratio.

Summary

In total, it does look like Imperial Oil has some positive aspects to its business. Although, we are disappointed to see a lack of growth in earnings even in spite of a moderate ROE and and a high reinvestment rate. We believe that there might be some outside factors that could be having a negative impact on the business. Having said that, looking at current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings growth rate is expected to see a huge improvement. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.