Greenfire Resources Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of GFR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

GFR (CA$10.9) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (CA$334.84)

Is GFR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GFR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GFR (CA$10.9) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$334.84)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GFR is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GFR?

Key metric: As GFR is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for GFR. This is calculated by dividing GFR's market cap by their current earnings.
What is GFR's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	19.7x
Earnings	CA$38.19m
Market Cap	CA$752.52m

GFR key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	5.3x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does GFR's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for GFR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	6x
KEC Kiwetinohk Energy	10.2x	93.6%	CA$667.8m
OBE Obsidian Energy	5.2x	15.4%	CA$610.8m
FEC Frontera Energy	4.9x	n/a	CA$666.5m
TAL PetroTal	3.7x	-4.6%	CA$574.9m
GFR Greenfire Resources	19.7x	n/a	CA$538.4m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: GFR is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.7x) compared to the peer average (6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GFR's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Oil and Gas Industry?

7 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
HAM Highwood Asset Management	1.2x	-43.9%	US$64.52m
ALPS.U Alpine Summit Energy Partners	1x	n/a	US$24.02m
KUB.H Carcetti Capital	0.7x	n/a	US$5.82m
GCOM Green Shift Commodities	1.4x	n/a	US$4.43m

7 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: GFR is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.7x) compared to the Canadian Oil and Gas industry average (11.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GFR's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GFR PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	19.7x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate GFR's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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