Canadian Natural Resources Limited (TSE:CNQ) Annual Results Just Came Out: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

It's been a pretty great week for Canadian Natural Resources Limited (TSE:CNQ) shareholders, with its shares surging 11% to CA$97.70 in the week since its latest full-year results. Canadian Natural Resources reported CA$36b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CA$7.47 beat expectations, being 4.3% higher than what the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Canadian Natural Resources

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the six analysts covering Canadian Natural Resources, is for revenues of CA$33.1b in 2024. This implies a noticeable 7.9% reduction in Canadian Natural Resources' revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be CA$7.66, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CA$34.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$7.67 in 2024. So it looks like the analysts have become a bit less optimistic after the latest results announcement, with revenues expected to fall even as the company is supposed to maintain EPS.

The consensus has reconfirmed its price target of CA$99.49, showing that the analysts don't expect weaker revenue expectations next year to have a material impact on Canadian Natural Resources' market value. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Canadian Natural Resources at CA$110 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CA$86.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Canadian Natural Resources is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 7.9% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 17% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.9% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Canadian Natural Resources' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Even so, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Canadian Natural Resources. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Canadian Natural Resources going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Canadian Natural Resources that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.