A Look at Canadian Natural Resources (TSX:CNQ) Valuation Following Strong Q3 Results and $1.5 Billion Shareholder Returns

Canadian Natural Resources (TSX:CNQ) has just released its third-quarter 2025 results, delivering positive surprises on both net earnings and earnings per share. Investors also saw $1.5 billion returned through dividends and buybacks.

See our latest analysis for Canadian Natural Resources.

After a steady year marked by disciplined capital returns, Canadian Natural Resources has seen its share price climb 5.5% over the past month and nearly 9% in the last quarter, signaling renewed investor confidence. The 12-month total shareholder return of almost 5% is modest, but over the past three years, long-term investors have enjoyed a hefty 35% total return. Over five years, total return stands at a remarkable 279%, underscoring the company's strong track record and compounding potential.

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With shares still down from their peak, yet boasting a robust dividend and ongoing capital returns, the critical question now is whether Canadian Natural Resources is undervalued or if the market has already accounted for the company’s future growth potential.

Most Popular Narrative: 10.7% Undervalued

With Canadian Natural Resources closing at CA$47.29 and the most popular narrative estimating fair value at CA$52.95, current shares still have notable room to rise. Strong focus on long-term growth prospects and capital returns are central to this valuation view.

The ongoing incremental infrastructure buildout in Canada (e.g., TMX pipeline completion, LNG Canada ramp-up), combined with a strategic, diversified asset base, is set to improve market access and realized prices for CNQ's products, positively impacting revenue and long-term profitability.

Read the complete narrative.

Want the full story behind this optimism? The narrative’s case hangs on big-picture catalysts and quantitative assumptions that are not obvious at first glance. Unlock the key forecast for long-term earnings and the bold forward-looking multiple built into the price target. Discover what is driving this valuation call by reading on to see where the numbers lead.

Result: Fair Value of $52.95 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, regulatory pressures or weakened oil prices could challenge Canadian Natural Resources' positive outlook. These factors may potentially stall revenue growth or compress future margins.

Find out about the key risks to this Canadian Natural Resources narrative.

Build Your Own Canadian Natural Resources Narrative

If you have a different take or want to dig into the data firsthand, you can craft your own perspective in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Canadian Natural Resources research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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