Is Baytex Energy (TSE:BTE) A Risky Investment?

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies Baytex Energy Corp. (TSE:BTE) makes use of debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

View our latest analysis for Baytex Energy

How Much Debt Does Baytex Energy Carry?

As you can see below, at the end of September 2023, Baytex Energy had CA$2.63b of debt, up from CA$1.09b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. And it doesn't have much cash, so its net debt is about the same.

A Look At Baytex Energy's Liabilities

According to the last reported balance sheet, Baytex Energy had liabilities of CA$742.6m due within 12 months, and liabilities of CA$3.47b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CA$23.9m as well as receivables valued at CA$538.0m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CA$3.65b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of CA$4.31b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Baytex Energy's use of debt. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Baytex Energy's net debt is sitting at a very reasonable 1.8 times its EBITDA, while its EBIT covered its interest expense just 6.2 times last year. While these numbers do not alarm us, it's worth noting that the cost of the company's debt is having a real impact. Shareholders should be aware that Baytex Energy's EBIT was down 31% last year. If that earnings trend continues then paying off its debt will be about as easy as herding cats on to a roller coaster. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Baytex Energy's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. In the last three years, Baytex Energy created free cash flow amounting to 11% of its EBIT, an uninspiring performance. For us, cash conversion that low sparks a little paranoia about is ability to extinguish debt.

Our View

We'd go so far as to say Baytex Energy's EBIT growth rate was disappointing. But at least its interest cover is not so bad. We're quite clear that we consider Baytex Energy to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. For this reason we're pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example Baytex Energy has 4 warning signs (and 2 which are a bit concerning) we think you should know about.

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.