Baytex Energy Corp.

TSX:BTE Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$2.8b

Baytex Energy Valuation

Is BTE undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BTE when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
CA$1.60
Fair Value
123.8% overvalued intrinsic discount
10
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: BTE (CA$3.59) is trading above our estimate of fair value (CA$1.6)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BTE is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BTE?

Key metric: As BTE is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for BTE. This is calculated by dividing BTE's market cap by their current revenue.
What is BTE's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.9x
SalesCA$3.36b
Market CapCA$2.83b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does BTE's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for BTE vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average2.3x
TVE Tamarack Valley Energy
1.7x-3.0%CA$2.4b
NVA NuVista Energy
2.4x12.9%CA$2.7b
ATH Athabasca Oil
1.9x13.0%CA$2.5b
HWX Headwater Exploration
3.3x0.9%CA$1.6b
BTE Baytex Energy
0.9x-6.9%CA$2.8b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: BTE is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.9x) compared to the peer average (2.3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does BTE's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Oil and Gas Industry?

20 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
PKI Parkland
0.2x1.3%US$4.05b
GEI Gibson Energy
0.3x-3.1%US$2.76b
SES SECURE Waste Infrastructure
0.3x-69.6%US$2.46b
FEC Frontera Energy
0.4xn/aUS$468.17m
BTE 0.9xIndustry Avg. 2.0xNo. of Companies27PS0246810+
20 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: BTE is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.9x) compared to the Canadian Oil and Gas industry average (1.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BTE's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BTE PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.9x
Fair PS Ratio2.5x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: BTE is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BTE forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$3.59
CA$5.42
+51.0%
6.6%CA$6.00CA$5.00n/a10
Jan ’26CA$3.70
CA$5.65
+52.8%
6.1%CA$6.00CA$5.00n/a11
Dec ’25CA$3.98
CA$5.95
+49.6%
9.8%CA$7.50CA$5.50n/a11
Nov ’25CA$4.09
CA$5.95
+45.6%
9.8%CA$7.50CA$5.50n/a11
Oct ’25CA$4.22
CA$6.20
+46.9%
9.0%CA$7.50CA$5.50n/a10
Sep ’25CA$4.80
CA$6.45
+34.4%
9.5%CA$8.00CA$6.00n/a10
Aug ’25CA$4.87
CA$6.50
+33.5%
10.3%CA$8.00CA$6.00n/a10
Jul ’25CA$4.74
CA$6.48
+36.6%
10.4%CA$8.00CA$6.00n/a10
Jun ’25CA$5.01
CA$6.52
+30.2%
10.1%CA$8.00CA$6.00n/a11
May ’25CA$4.84
CA$6.48
+33.8%
11.5%CA$8.00CA$5.50n/a10
Apr ’25CA$5.05
CA$6.25
+23.8%
8.2%CA$7.25CA$5.50n/a9
Mar ’25CA$4.38
CA$6.48
+47.8%
10.3%CA$8.00CA$6.00n/a10
Feb ’25CA$4.14
CA$6.59
+59.2%
13.2%CA$8.00CA$5.00n/a11
Jan ’25CA$4.38
CA$7.36
+68.1%
8.2%CA$8.25CA$6.50CA$3.7011
Dec ’24CA$5.14
CA$7.92
+54.0%
8.7%CA$9.25CA$6.75CA$3.9812
Nov ’24CA$6.06
CA$7.75
+27.9%
8.0%CA$8.50CA$6.75CA$4.0912
Oct ’24CA$5.99
CA$7.44
+24.2%
10.6%CA$8.50CA$6.00CA$4.2212
Sep ’24CA$5.69
CA$6.98
+22.7%
15.1%CA$8.50CA$5.25CA$4.8012
Aug ’24CA$5.31
CA$6.94
+30.6%
15.0%CA$8.50CA$5.25CA$4.8712
Jul ’24CA$4.32
CA$6.98
+61.5%
16.6%CA$9.00CA$5.50CA$4.7411
Jun ’24CA$4.43
CA$7.22
+63.0%
19.3%CA$10.25CA$5.50CA$5.019
May ’24CA$5.05
CA$7.53
+49.0%
17.7%CA$10.25CA$5.50CA$4.8410
Apr ’24CA$5.07
CA$7.53
+48.5%
17.6%CA$10.25CA$5.50CA$5.059
Mar ’24CA$5.40
CA$7.84
+45.2%
14.8%CA$10.25CA$5.50CA$4.3811
Feb ’24CA$5.99
CA$8.34
+39.2%
14.8%CA$12.00CA$7.50CA$4.1411
Jan ’24CA$6.08
CA$8.98
+47.7%
12.3%CA$12.00CA$7.50CA$4.3811
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 10 Analysts
CA$5.42
Fair Value
33.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
10
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/29 23:18
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/29 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Baytex Energy Corp. is covered by 30 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Patrick O'RourkeATB Capital Markets
Laique Ahmad Amir ArifATB Capital Markets
Grant HoferBarclays