Athabasca Oil Valuation
Is ATH undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
4/6Valuation Score 4/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of ATH when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: ATH (CA$4.81) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$9.97)
Significantly Below Fair Value: ATH is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ATH?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
| What is ATH's n/a Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| n/a | 0x |
| n/a | n/a |
| Market Cap | CA$2.68b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 2.1x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 8.9x |
| PEG Ratio | n/a |
Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers
How does ATH's PS Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PS | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 4.1x | ||
PXT Parex Resources | 1.5x | 0.8% | CA$2.4b |
PEY Peyto Exploration & Development | 3.2x | 10.1% | CA$3.0b |
TPZ Topaz Energy | 10.2x | 8.2% | CA$3.3b |
VET Vermilion Energy | 1.5x | 2.7% | CA$2.6b |
ATH Athabasca Oil | 2.2x | 14.7% | CA$2.7b |
Price-To-Sales vs Peers: ATH is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.2x) compared to the peer average (4.1x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does ATH's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Oil and Gas Industry?
Price-To-Sales vs Industry: ATH is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.2x) compared to the Canadian Oil and Gas industry average (2.2x).
Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is ATH's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PS Ratio | 2.2x |
| Fair PS Ratio | 1.3x |
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: ATH is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.3x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | CA$4.81 | CA$6.14 +27.6% | 6.1% | CA$6.75 | CA$5.50 | n/a | 9 |
| May ’25 | CA$4.66 | CA$6.14 +31.7% | 6.1% | CA$6.75 | CA$5.50 | n/a | 9 |
| Apr ’25 | CA$5.24 | CA$5.96 +13.8% | 6.1% | CA$6.75 | CA$5.50 | n/a | 7 |
| Mar ’25 | CA$5.01 | CA$5.50 +9.8% | 6.4% | CA$6.00 | CA$5.00 | n/a | 7 |
| Feb ’25 | CA$4.31 | CA$5.25 +21.8% | 5.1% | CA$5.50 | CA$4.75 | n/a | 7 |
| Jan ’25 | CA$4.17 | CA$5.18 +24.2% | 6.2% | CA$5.50 | CA$4.75 | n/a | 7 |
| Dec ’24 | CA$3.83 | CA$5.09 +33.0% | 7.3% | CA$5.75 | CA$4.50 | n/a | 8 |
| Nov ’24 | CA$4.21 | CA$5.06 +20.2% | 6.4% | CA$5.50 | CA$4.50 | n/a | 8 |
| Oct ’24 | CA$4.35 | CA$4.72 +8.5% | 11.1% | CA$5.50 | CA$4.00 | n/a | 8 |
| Sep ’24 | CA$3.90 | CA$4.33 +11.1% | 8.6% | CA$5.00 | CA$4.00 | n/a | 6 |
| Aug ’24 | CA$3.43 | CA$4.13 +20.3% | 4.6% | CA$4.50 | CA$4.00 | n/a | 6 |
| Jul ’24 | CA$2.87 | CA$3.71 +29.2% | 8.2% | CA$4.00 | CA$3.25 | n/a | 6 |
| Jun ’24 | CA$2.91 | CA$3.79 +30.3% | 11.0% | CA$4.50 | CA$3.25 | n/a | 6 |
| May ’24 | CA$3.30 | CA$3.96 +19.9% | 11.2% | CA$4.50 | CA$3.25 | CA$4.66 | 6 |
| Apr ’24 | CA$3.23 | CA$3.75 +16.1% | 10.9% | CA$4.50 | CA$3.25 | CA$5.24 | 6 |
| Mar ’24 | CA$3.00 | CA$3.30 +10.0% | 8.8% | CA$3.75 | CA$3.00 | CA$5.01 | 5 |
| Feb ’24 | CA$2.83 | CA$3.25 +14.8% | 9.7% | CA$3.75 | CA$3.00 | CA$4.31 | 5 |
| Jan ’24 | CA$2.41 | CA$3.20 +32.8% | 9.1% | CA$3.75 | CA$3.00 | CA$4.17 | 5 |
| Dec ’23 | CA$2.69 | CA$3.15 +17.1% | 12.9% | CA$3.75 | CA$2.50 | CA$3.83 | 5 |
| Nov ’23 | CA$2.83 | CA$3.20 +13.1% | 9.1% | CA$3.75 | CA$3.00 | CA$4.21 | 5 |
| Oct ’23 | CA$2.13 | CA$3.30 +54.9% | 8.8% | CA$3.75 | CA$3.00 | CA$4.35 | 5 |
| Sep ’23 | CA$2.45 | CA$3.19 +30.1% | 6.5% | CA$3.50 | CA$3.00 | CA$3.90 | 4 |
| Aug ’23 | CA$2.42 | CA$3.19 +31.7% | 6.5% | CA$3.50 | CA$3.00 | CA$3.43 | 4 |
| Jul ’23 | CA$2.49 | CA$3.38 +35.5% | 6.4% | CA$3.50 | CA$3.00 | CA$2.87 | 4 |
| Jun ’23 | CA$2.67 | CA$3.19 +19.4% | 6.5% | CA$3.50 | CA$3.00 | CA$2.91 | 4 |
| May ’23 | CA$2.46 | CA$2.75 +11.8% | 15.7% | CA$3.50 | CA$2.50 | CA$3.30 | 4 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.